Airbus sees Asia-Pacific aviation services market surging to USD 138.7bn by 2044

February 5, 2026 in Business, Trade & Industry, Travel & Tourism by Editor

Airbus is forecasting a sharp expansion of the Asia-Pacific aviation services market, projecting total demand to reach US$138.7 billion by 2044, underpinned by sustained traffic growth, rapid fleet expansion and rising operational complexity across the region’s airlines.

In its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF) for Asia-Pacific — which includes China and India — the European aircraft manufacturer expects services demand to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.2pc over the next two decades, outpacing global averages and reinforcing the region’s role as the centre of gravity for future aviation growth.

The forecast is anchored in robust fleet and traffic fundamentals. Airbus estimates that Asia-Pacific will require 19,560 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, representing 46pc of total global demand. Passenger traffic is projected to expand at 4.4pc annually, well above the global average of 3.6pc, cementing the region’s position as the world’s fastest-growing air travel market.

As fleets grow in size and age, maintenance and operational services are set to dominate expenditure. Off-wing maintenance is forecast to expand from US$37.1 billion in 2025 to US$100 billion by 2044, making it the largest single services segment. Airbus notes that while demand is accelerating, the sector faces persistent constraints linked to supply-chain disruptions and shortages of skilled labour.

On-wing maintenance is also expected to more than double, rising from US$6 billion to US$14 billion over the forecast period. Significant capital is being channelled into new MRO infrastructure, with base maintenance hangars under development in markets such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, strengthening regional self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on overseas capacity.

Airlines are also investing heavily in modifications and upgrades, a segment forecast to grow from US$3.8 billion in 2025 to US$6.2 billion by 2044. As aircraft remain in service longer, carriers are undertaking increasingly complex retrofits, particularly cabin modernisation programmes that support premium products and the rollout of in-flight connectivity, reflecting shifting passenger expectations in competitive long-haul and regional markets.

Digitalisation is emerging as a critical enabler across the aviation ecosystem. The digital and connectivity segment is projected to almost quadruple from US$2.9 billion to US$11.2 billion by 2044, driven by the adoption of artificial intelligence, advanced data analytics and predictive maintenance tools. Airbus says these technologies are helping airlines and MROs improve reliability, optimise operations and partially offset workforce shortages through automation.

Human capital, however, remains a central challenge. Training services demand is expected to rise from US$3.2 billion to US$7.7 billion, as the region transitions towards Competency-Based Training and Assessment (CBTA). Airbus estimates that Asia-Pacific will need more than 1.06 million new aviation professionals by 2044, including 282,000 pilots, 302,000 technicians and 473,000 cabin crew, to support growth.

Beyond traditional service categories, the forecast highlights the increasing importance of maintenance operations support — covering engineering services, technical records, inventory management and fleet planning — with demand projected to reach US$46.4 billion by 2044. Ground operations, a key determinant of aircraft turnaround efficiency, are also being reshaped by automation and digital tools, with the market expected to grow to US$31 billion.

While mature aviation markets will continue to provide scale, Airbus argues that Asia-Pacific — led by South Asia and China — will define the next phase of global aviation services growth, influencing where capacity is built, where skills are developed and where investment is ultimately deployed across the global air transport value chain.