Ugandan veterinary products supplier ERAM Uganda Limited has won regional recognition as it seeks to build on three decades of operations and expand its manufacturing capabilities and market reach.

The company was named Best Veterinary Company in East Africa at the 2026 East Africa Brand Quality Awards, receiving the Platinum Award and Quality Seal of Excellence at a ceremony held at Hotel Africana’s Nile Hall in Kampala on Friday, October 16.

The award, a first for ERAM, comes as the company enters its 31st year of operations, offering an opportunity to raise its profile beyond Uganda as it develops its animal-health business.

The sixth edition of the awards brought together brands and business leaders from nine countries: Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Ethiopia.

For Uganda, the recognition also highlights the potential for domestic enterprises to deepen capacity in veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and related products in a sector that supports livestock productivity, food security and rural livelihoods.

Founded in 1995 by veterinary professionals Edward Muhigirwa, its managing director, and Dr Alice Hope Banga, the company began as a small business in Kampala’s Container Village, seeking to improve access to veterinary products.

It has since expanded into an animal-health business supplying veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines, equipment and supplements to farmers and veterinary professionals across Uganda. Its operations include headquarters at ERAM House on Hoima Road in Bakuli and a manufacturing plant in Lugazi.

Dr Banga, the company’s director of finance and administration, said the award reinforced the importance of quality and reliability in a business whose products directly affect animal health and farm productivity.

“In animal health, quality has consequences beyond the transaction between a supplier and a customer. It affects the health of animals, the productivity of farmers and the confidence people place in the products they use,” she said.

“Receiving this award in our 31st year is an important milestone, but it also reminds us that recognition must be matched by consistent performance.”

According to the organisers, ERAM was nominated by members of the public before being assessed by an expert panel. The evaluation covered product quality, affordability, reliability, customer care, consumer trust, technology adoption, leadership, sustainability, economic performance and community contribution.

The Quality Seal of Excellence is intended to increase the visibility of recognised businesses and connect them to commercial networks, investment opportunities and potential export markets across East and Southern Africa.

For ERAM, the practical value of the recognition could help the company build commercial relationships, widen distribution and translate its manufacturing capabilities into greater market access.

The company has developed relationships with international manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, veterinarians, financiers and farmers. It also supports farmer training and professional development.

Human Resource Manager Diana Tumuheirwe said maintaining product and service standards required investment in employees’ skills, welfare and professional development.

“When employees are supported, trained and empowered to take ownership of their work, the benefits extend to the customer,” she said, adding that the company was continuing to develop its workforce as the business grew.

In a technically demanding sector, staff competence and product knowledge are important to the safe handling of veterinary products and the quality of support available to farmers and veterinary practitioners.

The award follows ERAM’s 30th-anniversary celebrations in October 2025, when it unveiled its new headquarters and reflected on its contribution to Uganda’s livestock sector.

At the anniversary event, Minister of State for Animal Industry Lt. Col. (Rtd) Bright Rwamirama urged agricultural manufacturers to maintain quality standards, adopt technology and invest in environmentally sustainable production. He also called for greater investment in research, local manufacturing and the training of future veterinary professionals.

These priorities are relevant to ERAM’s next phase of growth, particularly as it seeks to strengthen its manufacturing operations and pursue opportunities in regional markets.

Managing Director Muhigirwa said the award had strengthened the company’s confidence in the potential of Ugandan enterprise.

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Uganda’s organic agriculture sector has expanded rapidly, with certified farmers increasing to 744,288 and exports reaching an estimated USD225.7 million in 2025, according to new figures released by the National Organic Agricultural Movement of Uganda (NOGAMU).

The figures place Uganda as Africa’s largest country by area under certified organic farmland and among the world’s leading organic agriculture producers, strengthening its position in a market increasingly shaped by demand for sustainably produced food and agricultural products.

Speaking at the October 16 launch of the First Africa Organic and Nature Expo (ONE) and the Fifth National Organic Week (NOW), slated for November 4-7, NOGAMU chief executive Chariton Namuwoza said the sector had undergone significant changes over the past 25 years, including increased investment in processing, export value addition and locally manufactured agricultural inputs.

He said disruptions to global supply chains following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, had increased the cost and difficulty of importing conventional fertilisers, encouraging domestic investment in alternatives.

“Today, Uganda is home to some of Africa’s biggest producers of organic fertilisers,” Namuwoza said, adding that more than 11 manufacturers now produce organic fertilisers, biopesticides, fungicides and animal probiotics.

The expansion offers an opportunity to reduce dependence on imported agricultural inputs while building domestic capacity in a sector vulnerable to international price and supply shocks.

NOGAMU’s consolidated Uganda Organic Agriculture Sector Statistics 2026, compiled with the Knowledge-based Ecosystem for Building Resilience in Agriculture (KeBERA), show that the number of certified organic farmers rose from 211,584 in 2018 to 744,288 in 2025. The annual growth rate averaged 19.7pc over the period.

Certified organic farmland covered an estimated 930,360 hectares in 2025, while the number of certified operators increased from 65 in 2018 to 439.

Organic exports also grew steadily, from USD123.3 million in 2018 to USD225.7 million in 2025, with products reaching markets in the European Union, the United States, Japan and the wider region.

Uganda’s organic export portfolio comprises 95 distinct products, including coffee, fruit pulp and oilseeds, with 403 product variants recorded across 11 categories. The sector has 137 processors, providing a foundation for further value addition and higher export earnings.

However, the figures also point to room for growth in certified supply, particularly in high-volume crops such as coffee, where expanding the proportion produced and processed under recognised organic standards could help increase export revenues.

Namuwoza said organic agriculture could improve incomes for the estimated 70pc to 80pc of Africans who depend on agriculture, provided producers can access higher-value markets and capture more of the value generated along the supply chain.

The new statistics draw on surveys of organic farmers in 12 selected districts across Uganda’s four regions and the mapping of 493 active sector actors across 58 districts. The data are expected to inform the development of Uganda’s National Organic Agriculture Bill, providing policymakers and investors with a consolidated evidence base for the sector.

NOGAMU, in partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, the African Organic Network (AfrONet) and other stakeholders, will host the Africa Organic and Nature Expo alongside National Organic Week from November 4 to 7 at Hotel Africana in Kampala.

Held under the theme “Organic and Regenerative Innovations: Africa’s Competitive Edge,” the event is expected to attract more than 2,000 producers, processors, exporters, buyers, investors, financiers, policymakers and development partners from across Africa.

The four-day programme will include an organic and regenerative agriculture conference, business-to-business meetings, a dedicated regenerative coffee day and visits to farms, processing facilities and producer cooperatives.

The organisers say the event is intended to strengthen regional trade, connect producers with buyers and financiers, and promote practical approaches to soil health, agroforestry, organic certification and renewable energy.

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Corporate demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could rise nearly sixfold by 2030, potentially helping airlines and fuel producers overcome the high cost of cleaner fuel – one of the biggest obstacles to aviation decarbonisation.

A new study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airbus and Accenture estimates that corporate purchases of SAF environmental attribute certificates could support between 1 million and 1.9 million tonnes of the fuel annually by 2030, up from an estimated 323,000 tonnes in 2024.

The projections point to a potential new source of financing for aviation’s energy transition, allowing companies to contribute towards the cost of reducing emissions associated with business travel and air cargo without necessarily purchasing the physical fuel themselves.

The opportunity is significant because SAF remains considerably more expensive than conventional jet fuel, while production capacity is still limited. Global SAF output in 2026 is expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes, equivalent to just 0.8pc of total jet fuel consumption, according to IATA.

The fuel costs between two and three times as much as conventional jet fuel, making widespread adoption difficult for airlines already exposed to volatile fuel prices and tight operating margins.

Corporate participation could help distribute that additional cost across a wider pool of buyers, turning companies’ climate commitments into a more direct source of demand for SAF producers.

The proposed mechanism centres on environmental attribute certificates (EACs), which allow corporate buyers to pay for the emissions-reduction benefits associated with SAF without requiring the fuel to be physically delivered to the aircraft carrying their employees or cargo.

Under a book-and-claim system, the physical fuel is supplied and consumed within an aviation fuel network, while its verified environmental attributes are tracked separately and allocated to a purchaser. This allows a company to support SAF use even where the fuel is unavailable at the airport it uses.

For companies seeking to address their Scope 3 emissions (indirect emissions occurring across their value chains, including business travel and freight) the arrangement offers a way to contribute to aviation decarbonisation.

But the market remains underdeveloped with only about 15pc of corporate respondents surveyed for the study currently purchasing SAF certificates. Many others are deterred by prices, uncertainty over carbon accounting and the complexity of procurement.

The study estimates that SAF environmental attribute certificates cost between USD150 and USD500 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent abated, while companies indicate a willingness to pay closer to USD300.

The gap between the cost of participation and what buyers are prepared to pay presents a challenge for the market. IATA has argued that corporate enthusiasm for emissions reduction will translate into meaningful fuel demand only if the certificates are affordable, credible and straightforward to purchase.

Airlines currently account for about 53pc of corporate SAF certificate purchases, making them the largest source of certificates for companies seeking to address emissions from air travel and freight.

IATA Senior Vice-President for Sustainability and Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen said airlines could not bear the cost of expanding SAF production alone.

Corporate buyers, she said, could help build the market and contribute to the cost of aviation’s energy transition, provided companies have confidence that their purchases will deliver recognised emissions reductions.

The credibility test

The next stage of market development will depend on resolving three practical problems – inconsistent accounting rules, reliable tracking of environmental claims and cumbersome purchasing processes.

Without clear accounting standards, companies risk paying for emissions reductions that their reporting frameworks do not recognise. Weak tracking could also allow the same environmental benefit to be claimed more than once, undermining confidence in the market.

Simpler purchasing arrangements, including greater price transparency, smaller minimum volumes and shorter contracts, could also widen participation beyond large multinational companies with dedicated sustainability budgets.

For fuel producers, credible and predictable corporate demand could provide a stronger basis for investment decisions. Airbus Vice-President for Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Carbon Dioxide Removal Development Julien Manhes said corporate demand could become a catalyst for scaling up production by providing fuel producers with a clearer signal of future purchases.

Accenture’s Global Aviation and Travel Sustainability Lead, Jesko Neuenburg, similarly argued that airlines needed systems to recover SAF costs and make certificates easier for customers to buy as the market matures.

Implications for African aviation

For Africa, the emerging market presents both a financing opportunity and a production challenge.

African airlines face the same underlying economics as their international competitors. SAF is expensive, production remains limited and the cost of transitioning away from conventional jet fuel must be managed alongside fleet investment and other operating expenses.

Corporate certificate purchases could allow businesses with substantial air-travel or air-cargo footprints to help finance emissions reductions, including through arrangements with airlines serving African markets.

The longer-term opportunity lies in production. African countries with suitable agricultural resources and renewable energy potential could explore SAF supply chains, subject to the availability of sustainable feedstocks, viable production technology, water and land safeguards, and commercially competitive logistics.

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The next major growth opportunity in global aviation may lie not only in selling aircraft but also in maintaining, upgrading and supporting them, with Airbus forecasting that the aviation services market will more than double to over USD420 billion by 2045.

The European planemaker’s latest Global Services Forecast projects annual growth of 3.8pc over the next two decades, driven by an expanding global fleet, rising passenger numbers, demand for maintenance and repairs, and the growing use of digital technology to improve airline operations.

Airbus expects the global fleet to reach 45,550 aircraft by 2045, while annual passenger numbers double to 10 billion. The expansion will increase demand for spare parts, engineering, maintenance facilities, technical support, digital connectivity and skilled personnel.

The forecast highlights a structural shift in aviation economics. As fleets grow and aircraft remain in service for longer, keeping them airworthy and operationally available will become an increasingly valuable business in its own right.

Maintenance and repair services will account for the largest share of the projected market. Airbus values off-wing maintenance — work carried out away from the aircraft, typically in specialised workshops — at USD217 billion by 2045, with annual growth of 3.7pc.

A further USD104 billion will come from maintenance operations support, a category covering areas such as inventory management, engineering and the provision of technical support needed to maintain aircraft reliability and continued airworthiness.

On-wing maintenance, which includes inspections and checks performed on aircraft, is forecast to reach USD36 billion. Together, the three categories illustrate how much of the industry’s future expenditure will be directed towards keeping aircraft serviceable rather than simply adding capacity.

The projections also point to the commercial importance of digitalisation. Airbus expects digital and connectivity services to grow at an annual rate of 5.3pc, the fastest among the six segments identified in its forecast, reaching USD27 billion by 2045.

These services are increasingly central to airline efficiency, from predictive maintenance and real-time aircraft monitoring to managing disruptions, reducing delays and improving the passenger experience. Their value lies in helping airlines identify problems earlier, use aircraft and crews more efficiently, and reduce the operational costs associated with unplanned downtime.

Aircraft modifications and upgrades are projected to generate USd21 billion, while training services will account for another USD17 billion by 2045.

Airbus also estimates that the industry will need an additional 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew over the next 20 years — a combined requirement of 2.44 million people.

Meeting that demand will require investment in training institutions, technical infrastructure and workforce development, alongside efforts to attract new entrants into aviation. The shortage of suitably qualified personnel could become a constraint on fleet growth if training capacity fails to keep pace.

“As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready,” said Cristina Aguilar Grieder, Airbus senior vice-president for customer services in commercial aircraft.

She said Airbus was expanding its role as a services partner through predictive operations, fleet modernisation and digital solutions intended to improve aircraft availability, reliability and safety.

The opportunity for Africa

For Africa, the forecast raises a key question of how much of this expanding services market the continent can capture.

Airlines operating in markets with limited maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) capacity often depend on facilities outside their home countries for specialised work, component repairs and technical support. This can increase costs and turnaround times while sending expenditure that could support local engineering skills and industrial capacity abroad.

A larger global services market could create opportunities for African operators to develop maintenance facilities, component-repair capabilities, technical training and digital aviation services. But growth in demand alone will not guarantee that investment follows.

MRO development requires substantial capital, skilled engineers, regulatory approvals, reliable supply chains and sufficient aircraft volumes to make specialised facilities commercially viable. Regional cooperation could help overcome some of these constraints by pooling demand across airlines and countries rather than requiring each market to build a complete maintenance ecosystem independently.

For Uganda and its neighbours, the implications extend to aviation training, engineering and the economics of regional air transport. A stronger local services base could reduce reliance on overseas providers, retain more technical expenditure within the region and create skilled employment beyond airline operations.

However, capturing that value would require a deliberate strategy linking airlines, aviation regulators, training institutions and investors. Facilities must be supported by sustainable demand, internationally recognised standards and the ability to compete on cost, quality and turnaround time.

Airbus expects Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, North America and China to remain the largest services markets by total demand through 2045. Asia-Pacific, China and South Asia collectively are projected to be the fastest-growing regional markets.

The forecast covers passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with payload capacity above 10 tonnes, and is not limited to Airbus aircraft.

Its broader message is that the economics of aviation are extending beyond aircraft orders and passenger growth. As fleets expand, maintenance, technical support, digital systems and workforce development will become more important to airline performance.

For emerging aviation markets, the challenge will be to build the skills, infrastructure and commercial partnerships needed to participate in that growth, rather than remain primarily consumers of services developed elsewhere.

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Uganda’s planned oil refinery is entering a more demanding commercial environment. Kenya has broken ground on a proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery at Lamu, backed by Aliko Dangote, while Tanzania is advancing plans for a 200,000-barrel-per-day facility at Tanga. Together with Uganda’s proposed 60,000-barrel-per-day refinery at Hoima, these projects are reshaping the outlook for petroleum refining in East Africa.

The concern is simple. If the region cannot absorb the combined output of its proposed refineries, which project will secure sufficient customers to operate profitably?

The question is legitimate, but it risks reducing a strategic investment decision to a contest for regional market share. Uganda is not planning to build a refinery simply to sell fuel to its neighbours. It is also seeking to support an economy that the government wants to grow tenfold, from approximately USD50 billion in 2023 to USD500 billion by 2040.

That ambition changes the context in which Hoima should be assessed. An economy of that scale will require substantially more productive infrastructure, industrial capacity and reliable energy supply. Petroleum will not meet all those requirements, but it will remain important to transport, aviation, construction, agriculture and parts of manufacturing for years to come.

The relevant question is therefore not whether East Africa needs three refineries of different sizes. It is whether Uganda can develop a commercially viable domestic refining industry that strengthens its economic resilience without relying on unrealistic export projections.

The domestic market is the starting point

Uganda currently consumes approximately 6.5 million litres of petroleum products a day and spends an estimated USD2 billion to USD2.5 billion annually on imports, according to the Uganda National Oil Company figures cited in recent regional reporting. That is an established market before the additional requirements of a larger economy are considered.

An expansion in manufacturing, mineral processing, commercial agriculture, tourism and construction would increase demand for freight transport, industrial machinery and other equipment that depends on liquid fuels. Growing aviation activity would create additional requirements for jet fuel, while greater urbanisation and trade would place further demands on transport and logistics.

The scale of that increase should not be assumed. Better fuel efficiency, electric mobility and the expansion of renewable electricity could moderate petroleum consumption. But neither should Uganda plan its energy infrastructure on the assumption that the transition will eliminate demand for liquid fuels before 2040.

The Tenfold Growth Strategy requires an energy system capable of supporting rapid economic expansion while accommodating technological change. Domestic refining is one possible component of that system.

The distinction is important because Uganda does not need to prove that petroleum demand will grow indefinitely. Instead, it needs to demonstrate that sufficient demand will remain, over the refinery’s economic life, to justify the investment and that locally refined products can compete with imports.

Energy security in an unstable world

Dangote’s 700k barrels a day refinery in Nigeria has scale but scale does not necessarily undermine the case for Uganda’s domestic refinery

The case for Hoima becomes stronger when energy security is considered alongside commercial returns.

Uganda is landlocked and depends on international supply chains and regional transport corridors to obtain refined petroleum products. Even when fuel is readily available in international markets, disruptions to shipping, higher freight and insurance charges, foreign-exchange pressures or interruptions along regional routes can raise the cost of getting it to Ugandan consumers.

Recent instability in the Middle East has illustrated how geopolitical events can affect petroleum prices and supply arrangements far beyond the immediate conflict zone. A domestic refinery would moderate these vulnerabilities and diversify the country’s supply arrangements.

Instead of depending almost entirely on finished products imported from overseas refineries, Uganda would have the option of processing some of its own crude and distributing the resulting products domestically. Strategic storage and continued access to imported fuels would provide additional protection against disruption.

This is the argument for redundancy in national infrastructure. A country does not necessarily build every strategic facility because it offers the lowest cost in every conceivable circumstance. Sometimes the value lies in having an additional source of supply when the alternatives become unreliable or expensive. The question is how much Uganda should pay for that resilience and ensure the cost remains proportionate to the benefit.

Refining is part of industrialisation

The second consideration is the opportunity to develop industries around the processing of domestic crude.

Exporting crude while importing refined products leaves Uganda dependent on processing capacity elsewhere. Domestic refining would allow the country to participate in another stage of the petroleum value chain, creating opportunities for engineering, maintenance, logistics, laboratory services and other industrial suppliers.

Depending on the final configuration, the Hoima complex could also support downstream production involving liquefied petroleum gas, petrochemicals and other industrial inputs.

These possibilities matter in an economy seeking to expand manufacturing and retain more value from its natural resources.

They should not, however, be confused with guaranteed economic gains. The refinery will need to demonstrate that its output can be sold competitively and that the value generated domestically exceeds the costs and risks of the investment.

Employment, local procurement and downstream industrial development should be measured against clear targets. Otherwise, the promise of value addition can become a justification for capital expenditure without sufficient accountability for the results.

Lamu changes the export equation

The emergence of Lamu makes it harder to rely on regional exports as the principal justification for Hoima.

A 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery, if delivered and operated as envisaged, would have substantial scale advantages and the potential to pursue customers beyond East Africa. Uganda’s smaller facility cannot expect to compete on volume alone.

Tanzania’s Tanga plans add another layer of uncertainty. The region’s proposed refining capacity could exceed its projected domestic demand, meaning that some facilities would need to sell into wider African markets.

Geography could be Hoima’s competitive advantage

There is another factor in the regional refining contest that deserves greater attention. Logistics. While coastal refineries enjoy direct access to seaborne crude and established shipping infrastructure, Hoima is considerably closer to landlocked markets in the Great Lakes region and parts of Central Africa. For customers in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi and other inland markets, sourcing petroleum products from Uganda could reduce the distance travelled compared with supplies originating from coastal refineries in Kenya or Tanzania.

In petroleum distribution, distance translates into real costs through road or rail freight, handling, transit delays and border procedures. A refinery positioned closer to its customers could therefore compete on delivered price even without matching the production scale of its coastal rivals. The advantage would be particularly relevant where dependable cross-border transport links and efficient customs arrangements make shorter supply routes commercially attractive.

This is not an automatic guarantee of competitiveness. The actual advantage will depend on the cost of moving products from Hoima, the condition of regional transport corridors, border efficiency and the prices offered by competing suppliers. But it gives Uganda a potentially important market beyond its domestic consumption. Not necessarily the entire East African coast-facing market, but the inland economies for which proximity and dependable supply could matter as much as refinery scale.

For Uganda, the implication is not necessarily to abandon refining. It is to be more realistic about the role of exports. Hoima should be designed and operated first around a credible domestic market, with regional sales treated as a potential source of additional revenue rather than an assumption on which the entire investment depends.

That requires a rigorous assessment of delivered costs. The price of crude, financing charges, processing efficiency, product yields, refinery utilisation and the cost of moving finished products to customers will determine competitiveness.

A refinery can have access to domestic crude and still struggle if its products are more expensive than imports. Conversely, a smaller plant with reliable feedstock, efficient operations and well-designed distribution infrastructure may serve a defined market successfully without matching the scale of its competitors.

Uganda’s planned 211-kilometre multiproduct pipeline from Hoima to the Namwabula storage and distribution terminal in Mpigi is therefore an important part of the project, not an incidental addition. Its cost and performance will influence the price at which refinery products reach the market.

Could modular technology change the economics?

Developments in modular construction and process engineering also warrant consideration. Standardised equipment and staged construction can offer advantages in delivery schedules, project execution and the ability to expand capacity as demand develops.

Modularity is not, however, a guarantee of lower costs. Smaller facilities can face higher unit costs and lack some of the processing efficiencies available to large, integrated refineries.

Uganda should therefore examine whether phased development or modular configurations offer a better risk-adjusted return than committing to a single configuration from the outset. That assessment must account for the characteristics of Uganda’s crude, the required product mix, environmental standards, maintenance requirements and the economics of expansion.

The objective should be neither to build the biggest possible refinery nor to pursue smaller plants simply because they appear easier to finance. It should be to establish the capacity Uganda can operate reliably and profitably under realistic demand scenarios.

The refinery must complement the energy transition

A USD500 billion economy will also require more electricity, greater energy efficiency and a progressive shift towards lower-carbon technologies.

Uganda should pursue those priorities alongside its petroleum investments. A refinery expected to operate for decades must be tested against scenarios involving slower fuel-demand growth, increasing vehicle electrification and changing international fuel standards.

This is not an argument for choosing between oil and renewable energy but a case for planning the two together.

Liquid fuels will remain important to several sectors during the transition, while electricity will become increasingly important to industry, households and transport. A balanced energy strategy must recognise both trajectories and avoid locking public resources into infrastructure whose economic assumptions cannot withstand technological change.

A strategic asset must pass the commercial test

The Kingfisher Development Area in Kikuube District

Uganda’s refinery has a credible strategic rationale. It could diversify fuel supply, reduce dependence on imported finished products and create opportunities for domestic industrial development.

But strategic rationale is not a substitute for commercial viability. The project must have transparent financing, dependable crude supply, competitive production costs and realistic projections of domestic demand. Government should also disclose the assumptions underpinning the investment and subject them to independent scrutiny.

The USD500 billion ambition makes the energy question more urgent, not less. An economy of that scale cannot afford to overlook the resilience of its fuel supply. Equally, it cannot afford a refinery whose costs undermine the investment needed for roads, electricity, health, education and other productive infrastructure.

Therefore, Hoima does not need to win a regional contest for refinery size to justify its place in Uganda’s development strategy. It needs to supply a meaningful share of the domestic market at a competitive cost, strengthen resilience against external shocks and support industries that create lasting economic value.

The arrival of Lamu and the prospect of Tanga should force Uganda to sharpen its commercial assumptions, not abandon the broader question of why it wants to refine its own oil.

In a world where geopolitical disruptions can rapidly alter energy costs and supply routes, resilience has economic value. The task is to build that resilience without paying more for it than the country can sustain.

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Uganda’s Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has cleared the marketing and distribution of shares in Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to eligible Ugandan investors, opening a tightly controlled route into one of Africa’s largest equity offerings.

The approval, contained in a public notice dated October 6, comes with significant restrictions. The offer may be marketed in Uganda only to high-net-worth individuals and professional investors, effectively excluding ordinary retail investors from participating through the local market.

CMA said the offer must not be promoted through indiscriminate advertising, mass solicitation or other methods directed at the general public. All local distribution must instead be handled by a CMA-licensed intermediary that has obtained specific regulatory clearance for the transaction.

SBG Securities Uganda Limited is currently the only intermediary authorised by CMA to market and offer the Dangote shares to Ugandan investors. The regulator said any additional intermediaries approved for the transaction would be announced publicly.

The approval followed an application by Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited on behalf of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE. The CMA said the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had already approved the offer and its prospectus, allowing Uganda to recognise the cross-border transaction subject to its own regulatory conditions.

But the CMA was quick to distinguish regulatory permission from investment endorsement. The Ugandan regulator said it has not approved the commercial merits of the investment, assessed the refinery’s financial performance or prospects, or evaluated its likely future performance. The refinery is also not supervised by CMA Uganda.

That distinction is important for Ugandan investors because the shares are being issued under Nigeria’s capital-markets framework rather than Uganda’s domestic securities regime. Investors here will therefore be exposed to a different legal and regulatory environment, foreign-exchange movements between the Ugandan shilling and Nigerian naira, foreign custody arrangements and potentially different taxation and procedures for exercising shareholder rights.

The CMA has also stressed the importance of anti-money-laundering controls, proper handling of investor funds and post-offer reporting as conditions for local distribution.

A USD 1.6 billion African IPO

The Dangote offer is significant by African standards. Dangote Petroleum Refinery is offering 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 each, seeking to raise about ₦2.15 trillion, equivalent to roughly USD1.6 billion at the exchange rate used for the offer documentation. The offer opened on September 14 and is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026.

At the offer price, the minimum Nigerian subscription of 10 shares costs ₦5,250. At current mid-market exchange rates, that is roughly UGX15,600, although the actual cost to a Ugandan investor will depend on the exchange rate, transaction costs, intermediary charges and the applicable subscription and custody arrangements.

The Ugandan minimum investment applicable through SBG Securities, however, has not been publicly specified in the material reviewed by 256 Business News. Neither has the CMA stated whether Ugandan investors will settle directly in naira or through another currency arrangement.

The transaction is also notable because it is intended to broaden ownership of an industrial asset that has until now been privately held.

Dangote Refinery began commercial operations in January 2024 and has reached crude-processing capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day. The company plans to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, with the IPO proceeds intended to help fund the expansion programme.

The company reported a profit after tax of about ₦2.5 trillion in the first half of 2026, reversing losses reported in 2025 and 2024, although its borrowings stood at about USD5.67 billion as at June 30.

The Ugandan approval is part of a wider effort to make the Dangote share sale accessible beyond Nigeria.

Kenya’s capital-markets regulator has also cleared a short-form prospectus allowing eligible Kenyan investors to participate through a global depository receipt structure.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s prospectus provides for eligible African investors to participate through specified cross-border arrangements, subject to approval in their respective jurisdictions.

The wider ambition is substantial. Dangote Refinery chief executive David Bird said this week that the company was targeting as many as 10 million retail investors, potentially more than twice the 4.5 million retail investors who participated in Saudi Aramco’s landmark 2019 IPO.

For Uganda, however, that mass-market ambition does not apply be the CMA’s decision creates a much narrower channel, reflecting the additional risks that arise when Ugandan investors acquire an asset listed and regulated in another jurisdiction.

For investors able to access the offer, the regulatory clearance provides an opportunity to gain exposure to one of Africa’s largest refining projects. But CMA’s warnings make clear that the regulator’s role is to control the manner in which the offer enters Uganda—not to tell investors that the shares are a good investment.

The Nigerian SEC has similarly warned investors to use only officially designated subscription channels and to verify intermediaries before providing personal information or transferring funds. It has specifically cautioned against unsolicited calls, WhatsApp messages, social-media promotions and promises of guaranteed or preferential allocations.

For Ugandan investors, therefore, the immediate practical question is not simply whether they can buy into Dangote Refinery, but whether they meet the eligibility requirements and can do so through the authorised local channel before the offer closes on October 13.

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Uganda’s private sector maintained its expansion in September as sustained consumer demand supported new orders and business activity, although rising input costs, transport pressures and payment delays increasingly constrained companies.

The latest Stanbic Bank Uganda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, stood at 53.0 in September, down from 55.0 in August but remaining above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

The September reading marked continued improvement in overall private-sector business conditions, extending a run of expansion that began in February 2025.

New orders and output remained resilient during the month, with businesses reporting that sustained customer demand, promotional campaigns and increased advertising helped generate new sales.

“New orders and output remained resilient, consistent with favourable demand conditions,” said Christopher Legilisho, an economist at Stanbic Bank.

The survey, which covers agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services, found that expansion in new orders was broad-based during September. However, agriculture and wholesale and retail firms recorded contractions in output.

Legilisho said the softer headline PMI masked growing pressures on businesses as stronger demand collided with supply and working-capital constraints.

“Rising backlogs driven by stronger demand and payment delays suggest that firms are facing growing capacity and working capital constraints,” he said.

The pressure was particularly evident in supply chains. Firms reported higher transport and logistics costs, international transportation delays and rising fuel costs, which contributed to a fresh deterioration in supplier performance.

Businesses responded by increasing purchasing activity and building inventories in anticipation of continued demand and possible supply disruptions.

Inventories increased for the 19th consecutive month, according to the survey, suggesting that companies are continuing to build buffers even as the cost of doing business rises.

Operating expenses also increased across all five monitored sectors, with companies citing higher utility, fuel and transport costs as well as rising wage bills.

The increase in input costs prompted businesses to raise selling prices in an effort to protect margins. Output charges increased across all sectors except construction, where prices declined.

Employment nevertheless continued to grow as companies responded to higher new orders and mounting workloads. Firms reported hiring both temporary and permanent workers, although services was the exception to the broader increase in employment.

At the same time, backlogs of unfinished work increased for a fourth consecutive month. Some companies attributed the accumulation to delayed customer payments, which slowed their ability to process incoming orders.

The combination of stronger demand and rising backlogs points to an increasingly important constraint on the private sector where businesses are finding customers, but their ability to convert demand into completed output is being tested by financing, staffing and supply-chain pressures.

“The supply-side pressures nevertheless intensified as higher transport and logistics costs strained supply chains,” Legilisho said. “Firms responded by increasing purchasing activity and building inventories in anticipation of sustained demand.”

The PMI is based on monthly responses from purchasing managers and measures changes in business activity across the Ugandan private sector. A reading above 50 indicates an improvement in business conditions from the previous month, while a reading below 50 indicates deterioration.

The index combines five components: new orders, weighted at 30pc; output, 25pc; employment, 20pc; suppliers’ delivery times, 15pc; and stocks of purchases, 10pc.

September’s data presents a mixed picture as the economy enters the final quarter of the year. Consumer and business demand remain supportive of expansion, but higher costs, delayed payments and supply-chain friction are making that growth more expensive to sustain.

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Exim Bank Uganda has provided financing support to Yangtze Industry Ltd as the company expands into manufacturing with a new glue production facility at the Sino-Uganda Mbale Industrial Park.

The facility, officially inaugurated on October 1, marks Yangtze Industry’s move into local production and adds to manufacturing activity at the industrial park, with the company positioning the plant to serve Uganda and wider regional markets.

The inauguration was presided over by Minister of State for Local Government Balaam Barugahara and attended by business leaders, industry stakeholders, industrial park administrators and representatives of Exim Bank Uganda.

Barugahara commended the investment, saying private-sector capital and access to financing would remain important to Uganda’s efforts to expand productive capacity and create employment.

He also recognised Exim Bank Uganda’s role in financing the project, highlighting the importance of cooperation between financial institutions and businesses in supporting industrial investment.

For Exim Bank Uganda, the Yangtze Industry project forms part of its broader approach to financing businesses as they invest in productive assets and expand their operations. The bank said its support includes financing for capital investment as well as financial solutions covering cash-flow management and trade finance.

The bank was represented at the inauguration by Deputy CEO Anthony Mariiro, Head of Business Banking Francis K. Mulero and Relationship Manager Proscovia Mwanje Nabulya.

The new facility is located within the Sino-Uganda Mbale Industrial Park, one of the industrial zones being developed to attract manufacturing investment and increase value addition in Uganda.

The expansion comes as Uganda continues to seek greater domestic production of manufactured goods, while businesses face the need for financing to acquire equipment, establish production lines and manage working capital as they scale.

The inauguration concluded with a tour of the manufacturing facility and a networking session involving business leaders, trade partners and other stakeholders.

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African airlines recorded a 6.7 percent year-on-year increase in passenger demand in August 2026, outperforming a global market that contracted by 0.8pc, according to the latest analysis by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The growth, however, came off faster capacity expansion, with African carriers increasing available seat capacity by 8.3pc compared with August 2025. The resulting passenger load factor fell 1.2 percentage points to 78.4pc.

The figures point to continued growth in the African air travel market, but also show that airlines are adding seats faster than passenger traffic is expanding.

Globally, passenger demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) fell 0.8pc year-on-year in August, while capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), increased 0.3pc. The global passenger load factor consequently declined 0.9 percentage points to 85.1pc.

IATA said the global contraction was largely linked to a sharp deterioration in Middle Eastern air travel, where carriers recorded a 14.6pc fall in demand compared with August 2025.

Excluding Middle Eastern airlines, global passenger demand grew 0.6pc year-on-year, although this was only half the pace recorded in July.

“The recovery trajectory for carriers in the Middle East was interrupted,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.

She said the coming months would show whether higher energy prices and geopolitical instability were beginning to influence travellers’ budgets and willingness to fly.

Forward airline schedules for October nevertheless point to a degree of caution rather than retreat, with available seats expected to increase by 2pc.

Africa’s August performance placed it among the faster-growing regional aviation markets, alongside Latin America and the Caribbean, where demand increased 6.7pc.

For African airlines, the 8.3pc increase in capacity was substantially higher than the 6.7pc growth in traffic. The region’s 78.4pc load factor was also below the global average of 85.1pc.

The gap between demand and capacity growth remains relevant for African airlines, where expanding connectivity has often been accompanied by pressure to fill additional seats profitably.

Across the international market, African carriers recorded a 6.7pc increase in passenger demand, while capacity rose 8.3pc. Their international passenger load factor stood at 78.4pc, down 1.2 percentage points from August 2025.

The figures come as African aviation continues to operate in a market with substantial room for growth but persistent structural constraints, including limited connectivity between African cities, high operating costs and dependence on international routes.

Middle East disruption weighs on global figures

The sharpest regional decline was recorded by Middle Eastern carriers. International demand fell 14.2pc, while capacity declined 9pc, leaving the regional load factor at 79.1pc, down 4.8 percentage points.

IATA said the deterioration reversed a gradual stabilisation in the region. Traffic on Middle East-Asia routes, for example, contracted 11.7pc year-on-year in August, compared with an 8.6pc decline in July.

Elsewhere, European carriers recorded 2.1pc international demand growth, while Latin American airlines posted 6.7pc growth. North American carriers recorded a 1.7pc decline and Asia-Pacific carriers a 0.1pc decline.

The overall international market contracted 0.9pc year-on-year, although demand excluding Middle Eastern carriers increased 1.3pc.

Domestic travel was also weaker globally, with demand falling 0.5pc despite a 0.7pc increase in capacity. China’s domestic market grew 5.8pc, supported by summer travel, while India recorded a 7.5pc decline.

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The Uganda Society of Architects (USA) and the Architects Registration Board (ARB) will this week bring together architects and other built-environment professionals to examine the evolution and future direction of architecture in Uganda.

The one-day symposium, scheduled for October 2 at Kabira Country Club in Kampala, will mark 60 years of the Uganda Society of Architects and 30 years of the Architects Registration Board.

Held under the theme “USA @ 60 Years & ARB @ 30 Years – Reflecting on the Past Achievements, Seizing Today’s Opportunities and Addressing the Future,” the meeting will look at how architecture has shaped Uganda’s built environment and the changing role of architects in the economy.

The organisers say the discussions will span three broad periods: the profession’s development over the past six decades, its current role and opportunities, and the changes likely to shape architectural practice over the next 60 years.

The symposium comes as the profession faces a rapidly changing technological environment, including the increasing use of digital design tools, new construction technologies and artificial intelligence.

Among the speakers will be Makerere University Vice Chancellor and architect Barnabas Nawangwe, who will deliver the keynote address. Nawangwe was also a key figure in the establishment of the university’s Department of Architecture.

Deputy Speaker of Parliament Thomas Tayebwa is expected to be the guest of honour.

Panel discussions will bring together senior architects, young professionals and specialists in digital innovation and technology to consider how emerging tools are changing architectural design, project supervision and professional practice.

The discussions will also examine the contribution of architecture to Uganda’s economic development, while bringing the profession into conversation with engineers, surveyors, interior designers, government officials, material suppliers, investors and development partners.

The anniversary provides an opportunity for the Uganda Society of Architects and the Architects Registration Board to look beyond the profession’s institutional history to the wider question of how built-environment professionals can contribute to economic development and innovation.

The symposium is open to members of the public at a fee of UGX200,000.

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