Africa’s demand for refined products projected to hit 6m barrels per day in 2050

December 5, 2025 in Letters, Opinion by Editor

Africa’s demand for refined petroleum products is shifting as population growth, industrialisation, and evolving energy policies reshape consumption patterns across the continent. This piece examines the forces driving demand, the pressures on supply chains, and what the transition means for refiners, importers, and policymakers navigating a rapidly changing fuels market.

 

By NJ Ayuk

 

Africa is entering a decisive moment in global energy dynamics — a period in which the continent’s vast fossil fuel reserves can either drive broad-based development or slip into yet another cycle of unrealised potential. Capturing this opportunity requires focused investments in refining capacity, trading systems, and cleaner fuels, especially as the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report outlines a steep rise in future demand.

The report projects a significant increase in Africa’s consumption of refined products, rising from around 4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2024 to more than 6 million bbl/d by 2050. Demographic expansion, rising incomes, industrial growth, and urbanisation are already reshaping energy consumption patterns. While many advanced economies are reducing their dependence on oil and gas, Africa’s trajectory is very different. The continent accounts for 18% of the world’s population yet consumes less than 5% of global oil products. Per capita usage is the lowest globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, underscoring the vast room for growth.

By 2050, Africa’s population is expected to swell by more than 930 million people, reaching nearly 2.4 billion. At the same time, Africa’s GDP is projected to almost triple to USD 7.8 trillion. Much of this acceleration will come from smaller and less developed markets, where rising economic activity will reinforce the need for energy-intensive transport, manufacturing, construction and services.

This dynamic is most clearly seen in gasoline demand. The 2026 Outlook Report shows that Africa will become the world’s primary engine of gasoline demand growth through mid-century, offsetting declines in China and OECD markets. Consumption is expected to exceed 2.2 million bbl/d by 2050, with Nigeria and a cluster of emerging economies leading this rise. In more mature markets — including Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa — improvements in fuel efficiency, the uptake of CNG and LPG vehicles, and gradual electric vehicle adoption will temper growth. Nevertheless, the continent’s overall reliance on gasoline-powered light-duty vehicles will persist as alternative technologies, constrained by unreliable electricity supply and limited charging infrastructure, penetrate slowly. For millions of Africans, gasoline will continue to underpin personal mobility and commercial transport.

Diesel and gasoil are set for an even more pronounced surge. By 2050, Africa’s consumption is expected to rise by roughly 880,000 bbl/d — almost a 50% increase — making it the fastest-growing diesel market globally. This growth will reflect the continent’s industrial and extractive expansion, particularly in mineral-rich countries such as Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The development of the Copperbelt and strategic corridors such as Lobito will intensify fuel requirements for mining, logistics and power generation. As populations grow and economies expand, commercial trucking will also increase, keeping diesel central to heavy-duty transport and industrial operations.

Aviation fuel is on a similar upward trajectory. Jet fuel and kerosene demand is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2025, climbing to around 280,000 bbl/d this year and rising by 65% by 2050. Much of this growth will be driven by the revival of regional and international air travel, the expansion of tourism and business activity, the emergence of a larger middle class, and new aviation infrastructure projects such as Ethiopia’s forthcoming airport. As trade and mobility deepen under the African Continental Free Trade Area, air travel and air freight will continue to expand.

Alongside rising demand for transport fuels, LPG stands out as the continent’s most compelling opportunity for cleaner household energy. More than 900 million Africans still depend on wood, charcoal, dung and kerosene for cooking — fuels that drive deforestation, cause severe indoor air pollution and contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. LPG offers a safer and cleaner alternative. A large-scale shift to LPG would dramatically reduce particulate emissions, save more than a million hectares of forest each year, and cut black carbon levels by tens of millions of tonnes. It would also significantly reduce respiratory illness and premature deaths linked to household air pollution. Yet despite these benefits, LPG consumption remains low, held back by weak policy support, limited financing options and distribution gaps in rural and low-income communities. Where governments have introduced favourable policies, as seen in Kenya, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, uptake has accelerated — suggesting that the potential is far greater than current projections imply.

Realising Africa’s long-term energy needs will require substantial investment. More than USD 20 billion will be needed by 2050 to expand downstream infrastructure capable of handling rising imports and growing regional distribution. Major projects such as Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery are reshaping the landscape, but they cannot meet the continent’s needs alone. Smaller refining and storage initiatives in Angola, Uganda and other countries will help, but the overall gap remains significant.

Africa’s energy future is one of profound growth and transformation. But ensuring that this future delivers prosperity for the continent’s 2.4 billion people will demand coordinated planning, deeper investment and a firm commitment to refining, efficient trading networks and cleaner fuels like LPG. With deliberate action, Africa can convert its rising energy demand into a foundation for development rather than a bottleneck to progress.

NJ Ayuk is the Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber

The State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report is available for download at https://apo-opa.co/3MuIyV8