Uganda’s export surge signals shift toward industrial depth and trade resilience

March 5, 2026 in Policy, Trade & Industry by Editor

Uganda’s export earnings have surged to USd13.4 billion in 2025, with manufactured exports now exceeding USD1 billion annually, as government positions trade at the centre of its ambitious Ten-Fold Growth Strategy aimed at building a $500 billion economy by 2040.

 

Uganda has recorded a dramatic quantitative and qualitative leap in export performance over the past five years, with total export earnings rising to USD13.4 billion in 2025 and manufactured exports now exceeding USD1 billion annually.

The figures were unveiled on March 4 at the National Trade Review Conference held at the Speke Resort Convention Centre in Munyonyo, where senior government officials, Members of Parliament, development partners and private sector leaders gathered to assess the country’s trade trajectory.

Addressing the conference, Trade Minister Fred Mwebesa said export earnings have expanded from about USD5 billion in 2020 to USD13.4 billion in 2025 — an increase of more than 160 percent.

The 2025 growth was driven primarily by gold exports, which reached USD6.4 billion, while coffee brought in USD2.2 billion, consolidating Uganda’s position as Africa’s leading coffee exporter.

Services have also become a significant contributor. Tourism and transport services generated over USD2.5 billion, underscoring the growing importance of non-merchandise exports.

Crucially, manufactured exports now account for a growing share of foreign exchange earnings. Cement, steel, pharmaceuticals and processed foods collectively contribute more than USD1 billion annually, lifting manufactured exports to 7.5 percent of total export revenues in 2025.

“These achievements demonstrate Uganda’s steady transition toward export diversification, increased value addition and a more resilient export sector,” Mwebesa said.

Government has positioned trade at the core of its Ten-Fold Growth Strategy, which seeks to expand the economy to $500 billion by 2040.

The Revised National Trade Policy and the National Export Development Strategy (NEDS) have been aligned with the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV), which integrates trade into a broader structural transformation agenda built around Agro-Industrialisation, Tourism Development, Mineral Beneficiation, and Science, Technology and Innovation.

Officials framed the surge not as an isolated performance spike, but as the outcome of sustained policy interventions aimed at export diversification, industrialisation, value addition and improved competitiveness. Revised trade instruments — including the National Trade Policy and the National Export Development Strategy — have been aligned with the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) and the government’s Ten-Fold Growth Strategy, which seeks to expand the economy to USD500 billion by 2040.

Under NDP IV, trade is embedded within a broader structural transformation agenda centred on agro-industrialisation, tourism development, mineral beneficiation, and science, technology and innovation. The plan envisions a stronger manufacturing base, with Manufacturing Value Added projected to rise from 16 percent of GDP to 20 percent by the end of the decade. Industrial capacity utilisation is expected to double from 30 percent to 60 percent, while the share of manufactured exports is targeted to expand steadily in tandem with a growing domestic market for locally produced goods.

Parallel to export expansion, Uganda has intensified its import substitution drive. Investments in industrial parks, strengthened standards enforcement, improved quality assurance and enhanced access to finance have enabled domestic manufacturers to scale up production and compete more effectively with imports. Locally produced cement, iron and steel products, pharmaceuticals, textiles, edible oils, sugar, dairy products and processed foods are increasingly meeting domestic demand while also finding regional markets. The expansion of steel mills, cement factories and agro-processing facilities reflects what officials describe as the steady construction of more resilient value chains.

Permanent Secretary Lynette Bagonza emphasised that while exports have grown over the past five years, imports have also increased — from USD7.5 billion to USD15.7 billion. Yet much of this import growth consists of industrial machinery, fuel, pharmaceuticals and raw materials that support production and infrastructure development. In this sense, she argued, a significant share of imports represents investment in future productive capacity rather than pure consumption.

Regionally, Uganda’s trade footprint continues to deepen. Approximately 38 percent of exports are destined for markets within the region, with the Middle East accounting for 26 percent, Asia 20 percent and the European Union 13 percent. More than 70 percent of Uganda’s manufactured exports are absorbed by regional markets, underscoring the importance of regional integration as a launch pad for industrial growth. Exports to COMESA have risen markedly over the past five years, while intra-East African Community trade has expanded in tandem, reinforcing Uganda’s position within continental value chains.

Yet alongside celebration, there was also a note of challenge. The British High Commissioner, Lisa Chesney, acknowledged Uganda’s export expansion but urged policymakers and businesses to confront the “last mile” of trade policy implementation. Preferential schemes and free trade agreements, she noted, often deliver less than their promise because firms lack information, coordination or institutional support to take full advantage of them. Opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area, expanded dairy access to North African markets, and tariff-free access under the UK’s Developing Countries Trading Scheme illustrate potential that remains partially untapped.

Her message highlighted the need for implementation discipline to match policy ambition if Uganda is to achieve its ambitious ten-fold growth strategy.

Structural constraints remain. Approximately 72 percent of enterprises operate informally, limiting their access to finance, technology and international markets. Key export sectors such as coffee, cocoa and sugar continue to grapple with limited value addition and quality challenges. At the same time, global trade is increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, underscoring the need for diversification and resilience.

Still, the tone of the conference was forward-looking. Officials expressed confidence that the strong export momentum of recent years provides a foundation for accelerated transformation. The task now is to deepen regional integration, leverage continental frameworks such as AfCFTA, strengthen standards and quality infrastructure, formalise and empower MSMEs, and attract investment into export-oriented industries.

Uganda’s export story has moved beyond raw volumes toward questions of composition, competitiveness and resilience. The figures unveiled in Munyonyo suggest that trade is no longer merely supporting growth but is becoming the bridge between domestic production and global opportunity.