Stanbic experts offer investment insights to navigate current market uncertainty

October 15, 2026 in Financial Services by Editor

Arinaitwe suggested clients can mitigate the foreign exchange risk by maintaining external accounts to hold dollars whenever the opportunity arises.

The continued conflict in the Middle East is partly to explain the fluctuations in Uganda’s foreign exchange market, weakening the shilling against the US dollar, and contributing to rising inflation, but Ugandan investors have been told the economy remains largely resilient and stable.

During the most recent Stanbic Global Markets Webinar moderated by Eileen Lynette Ninsima, the theme was ‘Beyond the Noise: Where is Smart Money Going? Turning Market Insights into Investment Action’. During the online discussion, Stanbic Bank experts offered several investment strategies to navigate the current market volatility and inflationary pressures.

Israel Arinaitwe, Head, Personal Banking at Stanbic Bank said, “Clients have concerns regarding currency mismatch, such as earning in shillings while paying for imports or school fees in dollars.”

He recommended maintaining external accounts to capture dollar opportunities, but clients can also avoid liquidating their assets by borrowing against their unit trust or bond balances.

A unit trust fund is a collective investment scheme (CIS) that pools money from many investors to buy a diversified portfolio of financial assets, such as government bonds, treasury bills, and company stocks. Bond holdings is the amount of money investors lent to the government mainly through treasury bills.

Arinaitwe said while the current prime lending rate is 19.5%, clients can borrow against these securities at approximately 15%. He also gave some insights to the recently launched Dangote IPO for the Lamu refinery project.

The Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has placed restrictions on this IPO, which is only open to high net worth investors and strictly through SBG Securities. However, Arinaitwe said Ugandans can exploit opportunities through regional diversification by investing in Kenyan or Tanzanian equities to shield against their Ugandan risks.

Arinaitwe said monthly inflation had risen from 4.1 percent to approximately 4.6 percent by the end of September, mostly due to higher energy and food prices. This was another major concern for clients in terms of purchasing power and the stability of the Uganda shilling.

He said the current shilling pressure stems from exogenous global factors rather than local economic fundamentals and the resilience of the Ugandan economy, specifically noting strong performance in the telecom and banking sectors.

Arinaitwe also suggested clients can mitigate the foreign exchange risk by maintaining external accounts to hold dollars whenever the opportunity arises.

He said, “Using hard currencies like the US dollar or investing across East Africa to hedge against local volatility, Eurobonds are identified as an accessible way to invest in African sovereign debt denominated in US dollars to protect against devaluation.”

However, he cautioned investors to select Eurobonds from countries with strong commodity exporting bases or robust service sectors to manage credit risk perception.

Salima Asha Katamba, Investment Manager at SBG Securities said, “There is positive performance in the equities market. The Uganda Securities Exchange Local Companies Index rose by 53% since the start of 2026 due to increased corporate profitability in sectors like telecom and banking.”

She outlined several methods for building resilient portfolios notably through three main pillars: capital preservation, income stability, and growth. She highlighted the importance of Liquidity and Preservation by way of investing in treasury bills, fixed deposits, or unit trusts for quick access to cash.

She said, “For stable income, utilize government securities such as treasury bonds which can be ‘laddered’ to provide regular coupon payments, for example during March and September to meet specific expenses like school fees. For ‘Growth and Diversification’, explore equities like MTN Uganda, Airtel Uganda, and Stanbic Uganda while Eurobonds serve as a hard-currency hedge against local devaluation.”

Katamba listed the available SBG Securities unit trust options, beginning with the Money Market Fund for the conservative approach with a 10% annual return.

The Bond Fund is suitable for those with a medium-term focus offering 10.8% annual returns while the Balanced Fund is made up of a mix of equities and fixed income with 14% annual returns. The dollar-denominated Unit Trust provides 4% annual returns for USD-based liabilities.

Katamba said Stanbic offers professional investment advisory services and SBG Securities is fully licensed by the CMA. She said unit trust products are presented as a solution, because they can be held in both local currency and US dollars.

“Diversification strategies include exploring Eurobonds and local equities like MTN, Airtel, or Stanbic Bank and financial discipline is required to transition from smaller amounts toward larger goals like 300 million shillings in three years,” she said