SAF production lag threatens aviation’s net-zero ambitions despite growing passenger support

June 8, 2026 in Science and Technology, Travel & Tourism by Editor

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel production will account for just 0.8 percent of aviation fuel use in 2026, raising concerns that airlines may struggle to meet their 2050 net-zero emissions target despite strong passenger support for greener flying.

 

The global airline industry’s plan to eliminate net carbon emissions by 2050 is facing a growing reality check as production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) remains far below what is needed to decarbonize air transport.

New estimates released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) during its Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro show that global SAF production will reach just 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, accounting for only 0.8 percent of total aviation fuel consumption.

While production volumes continue to rise from a low base, industry leaders say progress is far too slow for aviation to remain on track toward its net-zero target.

The figures underscore one of the biggest contradictions confronting the aviation sector today. Airlines remain committed to reducing emissions, passengers increasingly support greener travel, and governments continue to strengthen climate commitments. Yet the supply of the industry’s most important decarbonization tool remains severely constrained.

“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8 percent of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65 percent of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest.”

SAF, which can be produced from waste oils, agricultural residues, biomass and other renewable feedstocks, is widely viewed as the most practical pathway for reducing emissions from long-haul aviation where alternatives such as electric aircraft remain commercially unviable.

Industry projections suggest SAF will need to contribute roughly 65 percent of aviation’s total carbon reduction effort if airlines are to meet their 2050 climate commitments. Yet current production levels remain a fraction of what is required.

The challenge is becoming even more acute as airlines simultaneously grapple with a global fuel price shock triggered by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.

Ironically, the same energy crisis that has exposed the risks of dependence on conventional fossil fuels has not yet generated the investment momentum needed to accelerate SAF production.

“The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF,” Walsh said. “But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market.”

For Africa, the slow pace of SAF development presents both a challenge and a potential opportunity.

The continent possesses significant renewable energy resources, agricultural feedstocks and land suitable for producing sustainable fuel inputs. As global demand for SAF rises, African countries could potentially position themselves as future producers within emerging green aviation supply chains.

However, investment remains limited, production infrastructure is largely absent, and regulatory frameworks are still evolving across much of the continent.

IATA argues that governments need to focus less on mandates and more on creating the conditions necessary for production to scale.

The association is calling for expanded renewable energy generation, open access to fuel infrastructure, stronger production incentives and the creation of a global SAF marketplace capable of connecting producers and airlines regardless of geography.

A particularly contentious issue is the push toward electro-SAF, or e-SAF, which is produced using renewable electricity, green hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide.

The European Union and United Kingdom have mandated production of around 600,000 tonnes of e-SAF by 2030. Yet global production capacity currently operating or under construction stands at just 20,000 tonnes, with only one commercial production facility currently in operation worldwide.

According to IATA, achieving the mandated targets would require roughly 20 additional commercial-scale refineries to be built within the next few years.

“The 2030 e-SAF targets by the UK and the EU are beyond unrealistic — they are utterly detached from reality,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.

She warned that imposing mandates before sufficient production capacity exists risks driving prices higher while delivering limited emissions reductions.

Despite the supply challenges, public support for aviation decarbonization appears stronger than ever.

An IATA passenger survey conducted in April found that 89 percent of travellers believe the aviation industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back climate efforts.

Two-thirds of respondents said they would be willing to pay more to offset emissions, while nearly nine in ten expect airfares to rise as airlines invest in sustainability.

Perhaps most significantly, passengers increasingly favour direct emissions reduction measures over taxes. The survey found that SAF development and emissions-reduction technologies ranked far ahead of taxation as preferred tools for making aviation more sustainable.

For airlines, the message is encouraging but also demanding. Passengers are prepared to support the transition to cleaner aviation. The question now is whether fuel producers, investors and policymakers can move quickly enough to supply the sustainable fuels needed to make that transition possible.