Uganda is seeking to position technology and innovation at the centre of its energy transition and industrialisation agenda as it hosts the 4th Power & Elec International Expo 2026, bringing together investors, manufacturers, policymakers and technology firms to explore opportunities across the country’s expanding power sector.

The three-day exhibition, organised by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development in partnership with Exhibitions and Trade Services India Pvt. Ltd. (ETSIPL), Lanestar Enterprises Uganda Ltd., the Uganda Manufacturers Association (UMA) and other sector stakeholders, runs from July 9 to 11 at the UMA Multipurpose Hall in Kampala.

Speaking ahead of the event, Minister for Energy and Mineral Development Dr. Monica Musenero Masanza said Uganda’s next phase of development will depend not only on expanding electricity generation but also on using energy to drive industrialisation, innovation and economic transformation.

Held under the theme “Scaling Energy 10X: Technology, Sustainability and Global Impact,” the Expo is expected to attract delegates from China, India, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye and other countries, creating a platform for investment promotion, technology transfer and business partnerships.

The event comes as Uganda aligns its energy strategy with Vision 2040, the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) and the government’s ambition of achieving ten-fold economic growth.

“The next phase of Uganda’s transformation is not simply about generating more electricity. It is about ensuring that every unit of energy powers productive enterprise, supports industrialisation, creates jobs, drives innovation and improves the livelihoods of our people,” Musenero said.

She noted that the Ministry is increasingly focusing on three strategic questions: where the investment is, where industries are located and whether energy supply is keeping pace with economic demand.

The approach reflects a broader shift from expanding electricity infrastructure alone to maximising the economic value generated from Uganda’s energy and mineral resources.

According to the Ministry, Uganda’s installed electricity generation capacity has grown to 2,098 megawatts following the commissioning of the Karuma Hydropower Project and the Nyagak III Hydropower Plant. National electricity access has reached 62.05 percent, including 24.05 percent through the national grid and 38 percent through off-grid solutions, supported by more than 2.75 million electricity connections.

Government aims to achieve universal electricity access by 2030 through continued investment in transmission infrastructure and decentralised clean energy systems.

Beyond expanding generation, Uganda is embracing emerging technologies including artificial intelligence, smart grids, battery energy storage, digital metering and advanced energy management systems to improve efficiency and strengthen the resilience of the power sector.

The Ministry is also promoting private-sector participation through policies supporting independent power transmission, renewable energy development, net metering and energy efficiency programmes.

Several large-scale generation projects remain under development, including the 840MW Ayago Hydropower Project, the 392MW Oriang project, the 400MW Kiba project and geothermal exploration, alongside continued investment in solar, wind and nuclear energy.

Uganda is simultaneously advancing its electric mobility strategy through the rollout of a national electric vehicle charging infrastructure and regulatory framework, while preparatory work continues on the proposed 8,400MW nuclear power programme in Buyende District. Human resource development for the nuclear industry is also underway through specialised training programmes at Soroti University.

A key feature of the Expo will be the Power & Elec Forum on July 10, where innovators, entrepreneurs and technology companies will discuss emerging energy technologies under the theme “Powering the Future: Innovation Pathways to 10-fold Energy Scale.”

The exhibition forms part of Uganda’s efforts to attract investors capable of bringing not only capital but also technology, skills development and manufacturing capacity as the country seeks to build a more competitive and value-driven energy economy.

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Rwanda has become the latest East African country to bypass Kenyan oil marketers in a move aimed at strengthening fuel security and reducing the cost of petroleum imports, following a path first taken by Uganda in 2023.

Beginning in August 2026, Kigali will start importing fuel directly from OQ Trading, the Omani government’s energy trading company, under a government-to-government (G2G) agreement managed by the Rwanda National Petroleum Corporation (RNPC). The new arrangement ends decades of reliance on Kenya’s fuel import framework, which had seen petroleum supplied through Kenyan oil marketing companies.

The decision represents another setback for Kenya’s once-dominant G2G fuel supply model, which has steadily lost regional influence since Uganda shifted its transit fuel imports to a similar state-to-state arrangement nearly three years ago.

Uganda’s departure was itself triggered by a diplomatic dispute after Kenyan authorities declined to grant the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) a licence to import fuel independently of Kenya’s G2G programme. The disagreement eventually reached the East African Court of Justice before the two governments resolved the matter, paving the way for UNOC to take charge of Uganda’s fuel imports.

Like Uganda, Rwanda says the direct procurement model is designed to improve energy security, reduce dependence on private intermediaries and help stabilise domestic fuel prices amid volatile global oil markets.

The move comes as Rwanda contends with some of the highest pump prices in East Africa, driven by supply disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East and continued uncertainty in global energy markets.

Although Rwanda will source fuel directly from Oman, it is not abandoning Kenyan infrastructure altogether. Industry executives say the country is expected to continue transporting part of its imports through the Port of Mombasa and the Kenya Pipeline Company network, alongside its existing logistics through Tanzania’s Port of Dar es Salaam.

According to Business Daily, senior Rwandan energy officials are expected in Nairobi to negotiate storage and transportation arrangements with the Kenya Pipeline Company as the transition begins.

Rwanda currently receives the majority of its fuel through Dar es Salaam, with roughly 30 percent arriving via Kenyan suppliers. The shift therefore primarily affects the commercial structure of fuel procurement rather than the transport corridors themselves.

The latest development reinforces a growing regional trend towards greater government control over strategic fuel supplies. Uganda has argued that its G2G arrangement has improved security of supply while insulating the country from excessive price mark-ups associated with multiple intermediaries.

Rwanda’s adoption of a similar model suggests that East African governments are increasingly prioritising direct state-to-state procurement as they seek to shield their economies from global energy shocks while retaining access to regional transport infrastructure.

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For years, the conversation around clean cooking in Uganda has centred on environmental conservation and reducing pressure on forests. Increasingly, however, the business case is becoming just as compelling.

As energy costs continue to squeeze profit margins across the hospitality industry, restaurants are beginning to view efficient cooking technology not as a sustainability initiative but as an operational investment capable of delivering measurable financial returns.

One business illustrating this shift is Mbarara-based Polland Food Centre, which says it has reduced its daily cooking fuel costs by 60 percent after replacing traditional charcoal stoves with energy-efficient Ecostoves.

The restaurant, which opened in 2025, had been spending between UGX40,000 and UGX50,000 each day on charcoal to meet demand for its diverse menu. Besides the high fuel bills, traditional stoves generated excessive smoke, wasted heat and created difficult working conditions for kitchen staff.

Seeking a more efficient alternative, the restaurant installed built-in Ecostoves supplied by Elsmart Conservation Technologies. The insulated cooking systems use high-density honeycomb briquettes designed to burn longer while retaining heat more effectively than conventional charcoal stoves.

The result has been a reduction in daily fuel expenditure to about UGX20,000, allowing the business to redirect savings towards growth while improving operational efficiency.

“Previously, we spent between UGX40,000 and UGX50,000 on charcoal every day. Now we spend only about UGX20,000 on briquettes to prepare food for the entire day,” said Muhuza John Bosco, Head Chef at Polland Food Centre.

“The stoves are cost-effective. We cook faster, the insulation preserves heat, keeping food warm throughout the day without additional fuel, and since we started using them, we have not recorded a single accident.”

Beyond the reduction in fuel costs, the restaurant reports shorter cooking times, cleaner kitchens and improved staff welfare due to lower smoke emissions and reduced exposure to heat.

The experience reflects a broader trend emerging among Ugandan businesses seeking to reduce operating costs through energy-efficient technologies rather than relying solely on higher sales to improve profitability.

For sectors such as hospitality, food processing and small manufacturing—where cooking or heating represents a significant share of operating expenses—energy efficiency is increasingly becoming a competitive differentiator.

The transition is also receiving support from financial institutions and development partners promoting cleaner energy adoption.

According to Virginia Semakula, Equity Bank Uganda’s Manager for the Energy, Environment and Climate Change Pillar, businesses across multiple sectors are already benefiting from investments in cleaner technologies.

“Through our partnership with GIZ, we have expanded access to clean cooking systems and solar technologies across different communities,” she said.

“Businesses have reduced dependence on charcoal, firewood and kerosene by adopting cleaner cooking solutions, while salons, retail shops, households and farms are increasingly using solar-powered systems to lower energy costs and extend operating hours.”

Uganda remains heavily dependent on biomass for cooking, with charcoal and firewood accounting for the dominant share of household and commercial energy use. That dependence exposes businesses to fluctuating fuel prices while contributing to deforestation and indoor air pollution.

Energy-efficient cooking technologies are increasingly being promoted as part of the country’s wider clean energy transition, offering businesses an opportunity to lower operating costs while supporting environmental sustainability.

For Polland Food Centre, the financial gains have been significant enough to influence its expansion strategy. Management plans to install additional Ecostoves as it increases kitchen capacity and intends to equip a planned second branch with the same technology from the outset.

The experience underscores a growing reality for Uganda’s small and medium-sized enterprises: investments once viewed primarily through the lens of environmental responsibility are increasingly proving their value on the balance sheet.

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Escalating energy costs are emerging as one of the biggest operational challenges facing Uganda’s education sector, prompting growing interest in renewable energy solutions that can lower costs and improve long-term sustainability.

The issue came into sharp focus during a business forum organised by Stanbic Bank Uganda for education sector clients, where school proprietors, energy experts, financiers and policymakers examined how renewable energy could help institutions manage rising expenditure while improving service delivery.

The forum forms part of Stanbic Bank’s year-long regional business engagement programme marking the bank’s 35 years of operation in Uganda.

Participants heard that while access to electricity has expanded significantly across the country, many schools continue to grapple with high utility bills, unreliable power supply, rising generator fuel costs and dependence on firewood for cooking.

For institutions operating under tight budgets, these costs are increasingly competing with spending on infrastructure, learning materials and staff development.

Eng. David Birimumaaso, Assistant Commissioner for Energy Efficiency and Conservation at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, said access to reliable and affordable energy remains critical for improving educational outcomes.

“Access to reliable and affordable energy is essential for creating conducive learning environments. Renewable solutions can bridge existing gaps while supporting Uganda’s broader climate and development objectives,” he said.

The discussion highlighted a broader shift taking place across Uganda’s economy as businesses and institutions seek alternatives to conventional energy sources in response to rising operating costs.

For schools, renewable energy is increasingly being viewed through a commercial lens rather than purely as an environmental intervention.

Tunde Thorpe, Stanbic Bank Uganda’s Executive Head of Business and Commercial Banking, said investments in clean energy can help institutions reduce inefficiencies that drain resources.

“Many institutions still struggle with energy-related inefficiencies that affect service delivery. Clean energy solutions free up resources that can be redirected to improving learning outcomes,” Thorpe said.

He noted that access to financing remains a major barrier for many institutions seeking to transition to renewable technologies, adding that Stanbic has developed financing solutions aimed at making such investments more affordable.

Uganda’s energy landscape has evolved significantly in recent years. Current estimates show national electricity access at 56.7 percent, with solar energy accounting for 37.7 percent of access compared to 18.9 percent connected through the national grid.

Despite this progress, many educational institutions, particularly those located outside major urban centres, continue to experience energy reliability challenges that affect teaching, administration and student welfare.

Noah Ochima of the Uganda Energy Credit Capitalisation Company said technological advances and falling costs have made renewable energy systems increasingly viable for schools.

“Renewable energy is no longer a future option; it is a present-day necessity,” he said.

Private sector players participating in the forum argued that institutions should increasingly view renewable energy investments as long-term cost management strategies capable of generating measurable financial returns.

Mohammed Lubowa, Managing Director of All in Trade Uganda, said schools should assess renewable energy projects based on their ability to deliver operational savings and improve energy security over time.

Beyond electricity, participants also highlighted the continued dependence on firewood by many schools, raising concerns about environmental sustainability, health impacts and rising fuel costs.

Melissa Nyakwera, Stanbic Bank’s Head of Commercial Banking, said addressing these challenges would require stronger collaboration between financial institutions, government agencies, development partners and energy providers.

She said the bank is expanding support to schools through financing, technical advisory services and partnerships designed to accelerate adoption of sustainable technologies.

The bank is also offering financing products beyond energy solutions, including asset financing for school transport and lending facilities that rely on transaction history rather than traditional collateral requirements.

As operating costs continue to rise, school administrators are under pressure to find efficiencies without compromising educational quality. Renewable energy, once viewed primarily as an environmental consideration, is now emerging as a strategic investment capable of protecting budgets, improving reliability and strengthening the long-term sustainability of educational institutions.

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In discussions about Uganda’s energy future, attention often gravitates toward large-scale investments—hydropower dams, solar farms, transmission lines, and petroleum infrastructure. Yet one of the country’s most significant energy transformations is taking place in kitchens, where a simple cooking stove is delivering measurable economic, environmental, and social returns.

Across rural Uganda, fuel-efficient eco-stoves are emerging as an important tool in the country’s transition toward sustainable development. By reducing household fuel consumption, lowering cooking costs, improving health outcomes, and easing pressure on forests, these modest innovations are generating benefits that extend far beyond the home.

The numbers illustrate the scale of the challenge. Nearly all rural households continue to rely on biomass fuels such as firewood and charcoal for cooking. Traditional three-stone fires and rudimentary charcoal stoves remain widespread despite their inefficiency. The result is a cycle of rising fuel costs, environmental degradation, and health risks associated with indoor air pollution.

For many women, who bear the primary responsibility for cooking and fuel collection, this dependence has long translated into lost time, higher household expenditure, and daily exposure to smoke-filled cooking spaces.

That reality has changed dramatically for Florence Nabutsebi, a resident of Busamaga West Constituency in Mbale District. Like many rural households, her family depended heavily on charcoal and firewood. The arrival of an eco-stove through a local cooperative initially generated skepticism. Butthe results quickly changed her mind.

A sack of charcoal that previously lasted one month now serves her household for nearly two and a half months. Firewood consumption has fallen significantly, cooking takes less time, and the family spends less money on energy.

Those savings matter. In many rural households, reduced spending on cooking fuel creates room in already constrained budgets for food, education, healthcare, and agricultural investment.

The economic impact is even more visible among small businesses.

In Namatala, Mbale City, restaurant owner Fatimah Nanfuma says the amount of charcoal that previously lasted only a few weeks can now support her operations for up to three months. For a small enterprise operating on tight margins, lower energy expenditure directly improves profitability and business sustainability.

Such experiences highlight an often-overlooked reality: access to efficient energy is not merely a household welfare issue. It is also a business competitiveness issue.

The benefits extend beyond savings. Some households and entrepreneurs have begun producing fuel briquettes from charcoal dust, sawdust, and organic waste. What was once discarded as waste is being converted into a marketable product, creating new income streams while reducing pressure on forests.

Environmental gains are equally palpable. Uganda continues to face deforestation driven largely by demand for fuelwood and charcoal. Every reduction in household biomass consumption translates into lower pressure on forest resources. As adoption expands, improved cookstoves are becoming a practical climate adaptation and conservation tool that complements broader environmental policies.

Health outcomes are another important part of the equation. Traditional cooking methods expose women and children to prolonged smoke inhalation, increasing the risk of respiratory illnesses and other health complications. Cleaner-burning stoves significantly reduce indoor air pollution, creating healthier living conditions and potentially lowering healthcare costs for families.

Importantly, the growth of the sector is being supported through partnerships designed to make clean cooking affordable. Initiatives such as the Results-Based Financing programme implemented through Equity Bank Uganda and GIZ Energising Development Uganda are helping suppliers reach underserved communities while lowering costs for consumers.

As a result, some improved cookstove models are now available at prices affordable to low-income households, accelerating adoption across rural communities.

Perhaps the most powerful driver of growth, however, remains word of mouth. Families that experience savings and convenience often become advocates within their communities, encouraging neighbours to make the switch. This organic diffusion is helping clean cooking technologies reach households that traditional awareness campaigns might struggle to influence.

The broader lesson is that sustainable development does not always arrive through billion-dollar projects. Sometimes it comes in the form of a simple innovation that solves multiple challenges simultaneously.

By reducing household expenditure, improving public health, supporting women, creating business opportunities, and protecting natural resources, the clean cooking transition is proving that the path to a greener future can begin with something as ordinary as preparing a family meal.

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As schools across Uganda grapple with rising operational costs, a growing number are turning to energy-efficient cooking technologies to reduce expenditure, protect the environment and improve working conditions for staff.

One example is St. Andrew’s Secondary School in Rubindi, Mbarara District, where a shift from traditional firewood-based cooking to energy-saving cookstoves is expected to save the institution about UGX11 million annually.

The school, which serves hundreds of learners and staff, had for years relied on conventional wood-fired stoves that consumed large quantities of firewood and exposed kitchen workers to smoke-filled conditions.

According to school administrators, the institution previously used about 45 truckloads of firewood annually at a cost of approximately UGX18 million. Following the installation of improved energy-saving cookstoves and the redesign of its kitchen facilities, annual consumption is projected to fall to about 18 truckloads, reducing expenditure to roughly UGX7.2 million.

The change translates into annual savings of nearly UGX11 million, with school leaders expecting further efficiencies as the system is optimised.

Robert Bayo-the head Teacher of St. Andrews Secondary School Rubindi

“We used 15 lorries of firewood every term, spending UGX400,000 per lorry. This method was inefficient both financially and in terms of the health effects on staff working in the kitchen,” said Robert Bayo, the Head Teacher of St. Andrew’s Secondary School.

“Starting this term, we have only used three lorries and we project to use only six lorries for the entire term. The results have been encouraging.”

The project involved reconstructing the school’s kitchen, installing built-in energy-saving stoves and redesigning the cooking area to improve ventilation and cleanliness.

Beyond reducing fuel costs, the new system has significantly lowered smoke emissions, heat levels and ash production, creating a healthier working environment for cooks.

The Parents Teacher Association says the financial benefits extend beyond energy savings.

“Reduction in the budget spent on firewood means the school can redirect resources to other development projects,” said Timothy, the PTA chairman.

The school has also reduced pressure on its own woodlot, which had previously been harvested for cooking fuel.

Education sector stakeholders say such investments are becoming increasingly important as schools seek ways to manage operational costs without increasing the financial burden on parents.

The transition was supported through the Results-Based Financing (RBF) programme, a partnership involving Equity Bank Uganda, Energising Development (EnDev) Uganda and GIZ.

The programme provides incentives to suppliers of clean cooking and renewable energy technologies, helping institutions overcome the high upfront cost of adoption.

Virginia Semakula, Equity Bank Uganda’s Manager for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, said the initiative is helping schools, households and businesses reduce dependence on traditional fuels while lowering operating expenses.

“Many schools have reduced dependence on charcoal, firewood and kerosene by adopting cleaner cooking solutions. Businesses and households are also embracing solar-powered systems that help reduce energy costs and improve productivity,” she said.

The experience at St. Andrew’s reflects a wider trend emerging across Uganda’s education sector, where schools are increasingly viewing energy efficiency not simply as an environmental initiative, but as a financial management strategy.

With fuel costs continuing to rise and pressure mounting to preserve forest resources, clean cooking technologies are gaining recognition as a practical tool for improving school finances while advancing sustainability goals.

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Nestled among the rolling hills of Mbale District, Kilulu B village is experiencing a transformation that many rural communities across Uganda continue to aspire to. The catalyst is neither a major infrastructure project nor a government programme. Instead, it is a simple source of power that rises every morning above the eastern horizon.

At Good Journey Nursery and Primary School, solar energy is helping rewrite the future for hundreds of children by extending learning hours, improving educational outcomes and creating new opportunities for the community.

For years, the school struggled with one challenge familiar to many rural institutions across Uganda – access to reliable electricity.

Founded in 2016 by education advocates Mr. Malenje Simon and Ms. Grace Kayegi, Good Journey Nursery and Primary School was established to provide affordable education to children from low-income families, including orphans and vulnerable learners. While demand for the school steadily grew, persistent power outages threatened its ability to deliver quality education.

Electricity interruptions occurred several times each week, often lasting more than six hours. The consequences extended far beyond dark classrooms.

Evening revision sessions had to be cancelled. Early morning preparation classes became unpredictable. Primary Seven candidates preparing for the Primary Leaving Examinations (PLE) lost valuable study time at the most critical stage of their academic journey.

“The unstable electricity affected not only study schedules but also enrollment,” explains Kayegi. “Learners often had to return home early, limiting their learning hours. Our candidates suffered most because they did not get enough time to read.”

The challenge also delayed plans to establish a boarding section, as school administrators were reluctant to accommodate learners overnight without dependable lighting and adequate security.

As examination season approached in 2025, the situation became increasingly urgent.

Traditional alternatives such as candles and kerosene lamps offered only temporary relief. They were expensive to maintain, posed fire hazards and exposed learners to harmful smoke. For a school operating on limited resources, these options were neither safe nor sustainable.

Seeking a long-term solution, Malenje invested in solar energy through Sun King, a leading provider of off-grid solar products in Uganda. The school acquired a Home Plus Pro solar system equipped with high-efficiency lighting and battery storage capable of powering classrooms throughout the night.

The timing proved crucial.

Installed just weeks before national examinations, the system immediately changed the learning environment. For the first time, learners could study consistently during evening prep sessions and begin their day with uninterrupted early morning lessons.

The investment was made possible through the Results-Based Financing (RBF) Programme, a partnership involving Equity Bank Uganda, Energizing Development (EnDev) Uganda and GIZ. The initiative provides incentives to solar suppliers, reducing costs for consumers and enabling schools, households and small businesses to access quality renewable energy technologies.

Such interventions are becoming increasingly important as Uganda seeks to bridge the gap between communities connected to the national grid and those that remain underserved.

According to sector experts, access to reliable electricity remains one of the biggest barriers to improving educational outcomes in rural areas. While school construction and teacher recruitment often receive significant attention, dependable power is equally essential for modern learning.

At Good Journey, the impact became visible within a year.

Enrollment rose from 250 pupils to 310 and continues to increase. School revenues grew providing resources for expansion. Additional teachers have been recruited to accommodate growing numbers of learners, creating employment opportunities within the community.

Most importantly, students now enjoy extended study hours that were previously impossible.

“With stable lighting, our candidates now have more time to concentrate on their studies,” says Malenje. “Better performance in national examinations attracts more learners, which allows us to hire more teachers and create jobs. As village chairman, I am proud that children who might otherwise be idle now have a chance at a better future.”

Reliable lighting has improved safety around the school premises and increased confidence among parents. The institution’s growing reputation is helping position education as a viable pathway out of poverty for many families in Kilulu B and surrounding villages.

The experience also highlights the broader role renewable energy can play in rural development.

Across Uganda, thousands of schools face similar challenges with unreliable grid electricity or no electricity at all. Solar power offers an increasingly affordable alternative capable of supporting educational institutions, health centres and small enterprises in areas where conventional infrastructure remains limited.

For communities like Kilulu B, renewable energy is not merely an environmental solution. It is an economic and social development tool.

Encouraged by the success of the initial installation, Malenje is already planning the next phase. His vision includes expanding solar coverage to power the entire school compound, including teachers’ accommodation and a future boarding section.

He also hopes to introduce a solar-powered water pumping system that would provide clean water to both the school and neighbouring households.

If realised, those ambitions could transform Good Journey Nursery and Primary School into a fully fledged educational hub serving a much wider population.

The story unfolding in Kilulu B demonstrates how access to reliable energy can trigger a chain reaction of positive outcomes. Longer study hours lead to better academic performance. Better results attract more learners. Increased enrollment generates revenue, supports job creation and strengthens local development.

In a country where rural schools often struggle against infrastructure deficits, the experience of Good Journey offers a glimpse of what is possible when technology is matched with community determination.

As darkness falls over the Mbale highlands each evening, the lights shining from the school’s classrooms now represent more than electricity. They symbolize opportunity, resilience and the promise of a brighter future for hundreds of young Ugandans.

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Uganda has launched feasibility and environmental studies for the 400MW Kiba Hydropower Project as government moves to avoid a return to the crippling electricity shortages that once constrained the country’s economic growth.

The proposed hydropower station will be situated at the confluence of the Kiba River and the Victoria Nile, roughly 35 kilometres upstream of the boundary of Murchison Falls National Park, placing the project close to one of Uganda’s most ecologically sensitive river systems.

Energy officials say rapidly rising industrial demand, expanding regional export obligations and surging interest from energy-intensive industries such as data centres are tightening Uganda’s electricity supply margins and increasing pressure for new generation capacity.

Speaking earlier this week during a stakeholder meeting at Amber House, Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa said the commencement of the Kiba feasibility study marks a critical step in securing Uganda’s future energy needs and supporting long-term industrialisation.

The move reflects growing concern within government about avoiding a repeat of the severe power shortages and rationing that characterised the late 1990s and early 2000s, when Uganda was forced to rely heavily on expensive thermal generation to stabilise supply.

Although Uganda’s installed generation capacity currently stands at about 2,094MW, officials say dependable firm capacity is closer to 1,450MW because of hydrological variability, transmission constraints and intermittency from solar generation.

According to data from Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited, peak system demand reached 1,337MW in February 2026, leaving only a narrow reserve margin.

Nankabirwa said electricity demand growth reached nearly 20 percent for domestic consumption in 2025 and 21 percent across the wider national grid, driven largely by energy-intensive industrial users including steel and cement manufacturers.

Officials also disclosed that proposed data centre investments alone have submitted electricity requests amounting to 887MW, adding significant pressure to future supply planning.

Uganda is simultaneously expanding its regional electricity trade commitments.

The country exported nearly 270MW of electricity to Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania in February, while Kenya has already requested an increase in imports to 300MW by 2027.

Government projections indicate Uganda could face a 40MW electricity deficit during the 2025/26 financial year, rising to more than 217MW by 2027/28 if new generation projects are not accelerated.

Officials warn that failure to close the gap could force the country back into costly emergency interventions including thermal generation and load shedding.

The Ministry of Energy estimates the financial exposure from power shortages could exceed UGX 416 billion in unrealised economic output, while additional thermal generation purchases could cost up to UGX 1 trillion and ultimately increase electricity tariffs for consumers.

Nankabirwa said while solar investments remain important, they cannot fully substitute stable baseload hydropower generation needed to sustain industrial growth.

“The country must move decisively to secure firm generation capacity that can support long-term industrialisation and economic transformation,” she said.

The Kiba project has been prioritised under National Development Plan IV and the ruling National Resistance Movement manifesto as part of Uganda’s broader energy expansion strategy.

Government is also establishing a multi-sector technical committee involving the finance, water and environment ministries alongside agencies including National Environment Management Authority, Uganda Wildlife Authority, Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited and UETCL to oversee implementation.

The committee will simultaneously coordinate the development of the Kiba, Ayago Hydropower Project and Oriang Hydropower Project projects in an effort to fast-track approvals and reduce delays.

Energy ministry Permanent Secretary Irene Bateebe directed the consultants to prioritise biodiversity protection and underground engineering alternatives during the study phase because of the project’s environmentally sensitive location along the Nile corridor near Murchison Falls National Park.

The feasibility study is being conducted by a joint venture of Italian and Iranian engineering firms, which officials say will assess the project’s technical, economic and environmental viability before implementation.

Current plans envision a 400MW run-of-river hydropower station capable of generating approximately 2,686GWh annually with power evacuated through a 400kV transmission system.

Engineers are also examining underground powerhouse configurations and alternative transmission routes to minimise environmental disruption within protected wildlife areas.

The Kiba project traces its origins to a broader hydropower master plan funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and completed in 2011, which identified Kiba, Ayago and Oriang as key future hydropower sites after the development of Karuma Hydroelectric Power Station and Isimba Hydroelectric Power Station.

Officials say the latest study has been compressed from 18 months to 14 months in a bid to accelerate delivery timelines amid growing urgency over Uganda’s future electricity needs.

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According to the latest World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, overall commodity prices are forecast to rise by 16 pc in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizers prices and record-high prices for several key metals.

Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics said, “The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive. The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse.”

Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35 pc of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day. Even after moderating from their recent peak, Brent oil prices remained more than 50 pc higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025. These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions end in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026.

The World Food Programme says fertilizer prices are projected to increase by 31 pc, driven by a 60 pc jump in urea prices. Fertilizer affordability will fall to its worst level since 2022, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields. If the conflict proves more prolonged, these pressures on food supply and affordability could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year.

In developing economies, inflation is now projected 5.1 percent in 2026 under the baseline assumptions—a full percentage point higher than was expected before the war and an increase from 4.7 percent last year. Growth in developing economies will also deteriorate as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports from the Middle East face sharp curbs. Developing economies are expected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2026, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since January.

This year, Brent oil prices could average as high as $115 in a scenario where critical oil and gas facilities suffer more damage and export volumes are slow to recover. This in turn would have ripple effects on prices for fertilizer and alternative energy sources such as biofuels. Under this scenario, inflation in developing economies could rise to 5.8 percent this year, a level exceeded only in 2022 over the past decade.

Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group said, “The succession of shocks over the decade has sharply reduced the fiscal space available to respond to the current historic energy supply crisis,”  “Governments must resist the temptation of broad, untargeted fiscal support measures that could distort markets and erode fiscal buffers. Instead, they should focus on rapid, temporary support targeted to the most vulnerable households.”

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“Uganda is on the brink of a major economic shift. The critical question is whether our companies and more importantly, our people are adequately prepared to seize these opportunities and participate meaningfully in the oil and gas value chain, including upstream operations,” he said.

Kalifungwa made the remarks during the CEO’s Breakfast Meeting at the ongoing 11th Oil and Gas Convention at Speke Resort Munyonyo under the theme First Oil: Fulfilling the Promise, Forging the Future.

He said the impending production phase presents both significant opportunities and complex challenges that require a highly skilled and adaptable workforce. Kalifungwa reaffirmed Stanbic Bank’s commitment to the sector, describing it as a catalyst for broad-based economic transformation and a cornerstone of national resilience.

The annual convention convenes policymakers, financiers, and industry leaders to assess progress and shape Uganda’s oil and gas journey, which is widely regarded as a defining chapter in the country’s economic future.

 Thomas Tayebwa, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, underscored the need for accountability and institutional discipline as Uganda approaches first oil. “We must get this right from the outset. The laws, oversight, and discipline in implementation will determine whether oil becomes a blessing or a burden,” Tayebwa said. He called for transparency and robust governance frameworks.

Meanwhile, Ruth Nankabirwa, Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, reaffirmed government’s commitment to delivering First Oil while ensuring inclusive national benefits.

She said Uganda has moved from planning to execution, with key projects such as Tilenga, Kingfisher, and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline progressing steadily.

“We are not simply preparing for First Oil; we are laying the foundation for a transformed economy. Every investment must translate into jobs, skills, and opportunities for our people,” she said. She highlighted new infrastructure developments including Kabalega International Airport and the emerging industrial parks. 

Damoni Kitabire, Chairperson of the Stanbic Bank Board, linked Uganda’s oil ambitions within the broader global energy transition, describing the current moment as one of “profound contradiction.”

“As Uganda approaches First oOil, the world is simultaneously accelerating toward a low-carbon future. Yet recent geopolitical developments have exposed the fragility of global energy systems and reaffirmed the enduring centrality of oil,” he said.

Kitabire argued that global economic realities continue to underscore oil’s importance, even amid transition efforts. While acknowledging criticism surrounding fossil fuel investments, particularly projects such as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline, he emphasized the need for a pragmatic and inclusive pathway for emerging economies.

“Climate change is real and urgent. However, the transition must be practical, sequenced, and inclusive, especially for Africa. Uganda’s first oil is not a contradiction of the energy transition; it is part of it,” he said.

He reiterated Stanbic’s alignment with its parent, Standard Bank Group, in supporting a ‘just and patient’ transition, leveraging current oil resources to finance future renewable energy systems while safeguarding economic growth and energy access.

Kalifungwa emphasized that the true measure of success for Uganda’s oil and gas sector will extend beyond production volumes to its wider economic impact. “The opportunity before us is to ensure that oil revenues circulate within the domestic economy, creating enterprises, generating employment, and delivering long-term prosperity,” he said.

He said Stanbic’s involvement in major projects such as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline goes beyond financing infrastructure to enabling a broader ecosystem of value creation.

Through sector expertise and advisory services, the bank supports both public and private stakeholders in managing risks, navigating volatility, and building resilience.

He highlighted local content development as central to this vision. He cited initiatives such as the Stanbic Business Incubator in partnership with institutions including the African Development Bank and other development partners, to support hundreds of Ugandan enterprises to achieve international standards and competitively participate in the oil and gas value chain.

Eva Mpalampa, Head of Oil and Gas at Stanbic Bank, said the convention reflects a broader industry shift from planning to execution. “For over a decade, this forum has focused on projections. Today, we are firmly in the implementation phase,” she said.

She spoke of Stanbic’s deep sector expertise and local market knowledge, positioning the bank as a strategic financial partner throughout Uganda’s oil and gas journey.

She highlighted the bank’s 35-year presence in Uganda as evidence of its long-term commitment, supported by an extensive branch network, including a strong footprint within the oil-producing regions. Mpalampa said First Oil should be viewed as a foundation rather than an endpoint.

“Energy independence is not the destination; it is the starting point. Revenues generated today must be reinvested into renewable energy, infrastructure, and human capital to power the next phase of growth,” she said.

She also identified agriculture, workforce development, and women-led enterprises as priority areas to ensure inclusive benefits, stressing the importance of creating a ripple effect across the wider economy.

Mpalampa said, “Stanbic provides a comprehensive suite of financial solutions, including risk management, trade services, and market advisory enabling clients to navigate evolving market conditions and access deeper liquidity across both domestic and international markets.”

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