Six weeks into the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran that has disrupted global crude and refined petroleum supply chains, Uganda is emerging with significantly lower pump prices than its regional peers.

The development comes as the Uganda National oil Company (UNOC), announced Tuesday, that a new consignment of petroleum products including 119 million litres of  petrol, had landed at Mombasa, further allaying emerging jitters in the market. UNOC, said petroleum product supply remains secure and sufficient to meet national demand.

Latest regional pricing data shared on X (formerly Twitter) by the Money Academy Kenya, shows Uganda’s fuel prices now sit comfortably below most East African markets when denominated in Kenyan shillings:

• Kenya: Petrol Sh206 | Diesel Sh206
• Uganda: Petrol Sh184 | Diesel Sh177
• Rwanda: Petrol Sh204 | Diesel Sh195
• Tanzania: Petrol Sh190 | Diesel Sh189
• Ethiopia: Petrol Sh118 | Diesel Sh135

The price gap, particularly with Kenya, is now being cited as early validation of Uganda’s controversial decision to restructure its fuel import system by sidelining private oil marketing companies from direct procurement.

Under the new model, all fuel imports are handled centrally by the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), which has contracted global energy trader Vitol to manage supply.

The shift, implemented earlier this year, effectively removed intermediaries that previously sourced fuel through Kenyan supply chains—cutting out multiple layers of mark-ups that had long inflated pump prices.

Uganda’s relative price stability is being attributed to two key policy shifts: centralised procurement and a differentiated tax regime.

By consolidating imports under UNOC, the government has introduced a more controlled pricing framework, where local oil marketing companies now purchase fuel domestically rather than navigating complex regional supply chains.

This has significantly reduced exposure to price distortions linked to transit, brokerage, and foreign exchange layers—costs that are often passed on to consumers.

Equally important is Uganda’s tax structure. Unlike Kenya, which applies Value Added Tax (VAT) on fuel, Uganda does not levy VAT. Instead, it relies on excise duty, which can be adjusted periodically rather than rising automatically.

This gives policymakers greater flexibility to cushion consumers during periods of global price volatility—such as the current disruptions triggered by tensions in the Middle East.

The pricing divergence is likely to reignite debate over fuel taxation and supply chain structures across East Africa.

Kenya’s liberalised system, while competitive in theory, has increasingly come under scrutiny for exposing consumers to higher and more volatile prices, particularly during global shocks.

Uganda’s model, by contrast, reflects a more interventionist approach—one that prioritises price stability and supply security, even at the cost of reduced private sector participation in procurement.

Analysts say the current crisis offers a real-world stress test of both systems. Global fuel markets have been unsettled by supply uncertainties linked to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, with concerns over potential disruptions to key shipping routes and refining capacity.

In such an environment, countries with streamlined procurement systems and flexible tax policies are better positioned to absorb shocks.

Uganda’s ability to maintain relatively lower pump prices suggests that reducing inefficiencies within the supply chain can be as important as managing global price exposure.

However, questions remain about the long-term sustainability of the model.

Centralized procurement places significant operational responsibility on UNOC, raising concerns about the risks associated with reliance on a single supplier.

There are also broader considerations around market competition and whether reduced private sector involvement could have unintended consequences over time.

Still, in the short term, the results clearly show that Uganda’s fuel pricing reforms are delivering measurable benefits at the pump.

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Uganda’s fuel pump prices have edged up by an average of 5 percent, as global energy markets react nervously to escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, analysts note that the increases remain moderate and well below the highs recorded before the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) assumed control of bulk petroleum procurement in July 2024.

At the peak of earlier price volatility, petrol prices in Uganda surged to about UGX 5,600 per litre, while diesel reached UGX 5,300. Current price movements, though upward, are still trending below those levels—suggesting a degree of insulation from global shocks that had previously transmitted directly into the domestic market.

The latest wave of uncertainty was triggered by joint military action involving the United States and Israel against targets in Iran beginning February 28, 2026. The conflict, now stretching into its fifth week, has disrupted critical energy infrastructure across the region and heightened fears of supply constraints. Of particular concern is Iran’s tightening grip over the Strait of Hormuz—a vital corridor through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies pass.

Despite these pressures, Uganda appears to be holding steady. Government officials say the country has sufficient fuel reserves to maintain supply for at least two months, cushioning consumers from the full impact of the global turmoil. This resilience has been attributed largely to UNOC’s centralised procurement model, which has reduced speculative pricing behaviour by oil marketing companies.

Data from global monitoring platform GlobalPetrolPrices.com shows that, as of March 23, 2026, petrol in Uganda averaged UGX 4,950 per litre, while diesel stood at UGX 4,690. These figures compare favourably with global averages of approximately UGX 5,283 for petrol and UGX 5,411 for diesel over the same period.

Speaking March 25, Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa pushed back against recent price increases at the pump, arguing they are not justified by underlying supply costs. She noted that there had been no upward adjustment in the price at which oil marketers lift products from UNOC, suggesting that recent hikes may be driven more by market sentiment than actual supply constraints.

Industry insiders point instead to exchange rate pressures, with some marketers reportedly adjusting prices in anticipation of a weakening Ugandan shilling against the US dollar. Such hedging behaviour, they argue, is contributing to the current upward drift in pump prices.

“Currently, there should be no reason for marketing companies to exploit the situation to escalate pump prices,” Nankabirwa said.

Looking ahead, supply risks appear contained. In a joint statement issued on March 30, the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) and the Ministry of Energy said that, as of March 27, Uganda’s fuel stock levels and inland supply chain remained stable and sufficient to meet short-term national demand.

Available stocks for distribution stood at approximately 81 million litres of petrol, 80 million litres of diesel, and 18.5 million litres of Jet A-1. “These volumes translate to about 22 days of stock cover for petrol, 23 days for diesel, and 30 days for Jet A-1, effectively sustaining the country through to the end of April 2026,” the statement said.

In addition, 195 million litres of petrol, 155 million litres of diesel, and 24 million litres of Jet A-1 are expected to be delivered during April. These incoming volumes will extend stock cover by an estimated 52 days for petrol, 44 days for diesel, and 39 days for Jet A-1, further reinforcing supply stability.

Regionally, Uganda’s fuel prices remain competitive. Kenya continues to post the highest pump prices in East Africa, with petrol averaging UGX 5,116 per litre and diesel UGX 4,782. Rwanda follows with petrol at UGX 5,015 and diesel at UGX 5,000, while Burundi’s prices hover at UGX 5,048 for petrol and UGX 4,953 for diesel. Tanzania, benefiting from a different procurement model, records the lowest prices in the region, with petrol at UGX 4,173 and diesel at UGX 4,165.

Globally, the price shock has been far more pronounced in advanced economies. Diesel prices have surged to the equivalent of UGX 10,663 per litre in Singapore, UGX 15,583 in Hong Kong, and UGX 8,385 in the United Kingdom—underscoring the uneven impact of the crisis across markets.

Nankabirwa credited President Yoweri Museveni for championing reforms that enabled UNOC to partner with international suppliers such as Vitol Bahrain, helping diversify Uganda’s fuel supply chain and reduce exposure to geopolitical disruptions.

With global oil prices climbing past $100 per barrel in recent weeks, Uganda’s experience suggests that structural reforms in procurement and supply management may be playing a decisive role in shielding the domestic market from external shocks for now.

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African petroleum ministers have pulled out of the upcoming Africa Energies Summit, escalating tensions over representation and control of the continent’s energy narrative, and casting uncertainty over one of the industry’s key global platforms.

The summit, scheduled for May 12–14 in London, is organised by Frontier Energy Network. But ministers from several African oil-producing countries have declined to attend, citing concerns that the platform does not adequately reflect Africa’s priorities—particularly on local content and inclusion.

The boycott signals a growing assertiveness among African energy stakeholders, who are increasingly insisting that international forums engaging with the continent’s resources align with domestic development goals.

At the heart of the dispute is the question of local content—policies designed to ensure that oil and gas projects deliver jobs, skills, and economic value within host countries.

NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, framed the boycott as a deliberate statement of priorities.

According to Ayuk, African stakeholders are signalling that participation in global energy discussions will increasingly depend on whether platforms reflect the continent’s economic and social objectives. He suggested that greater inclusivity by organisers could reopen the door for engagement.

Across the continent, local content frameworks have become embedded in oil and gas policy. Countries such as Nigeria and Angola have introduced legislation mandating local participation in energy projects, with measurable economic impact.

Major projects are already reflecting this shift from policy to practice.

The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project, spanning Senegal and Mauritania, integrates local content across its operations—from supplier engagement and workforce training to community investment. The project exported its first cargo in 2025 and is moving toward full-scale operations.

In Equatorial Guinea, the EG LNG facility has long prioritised local workforce development and supplier integration, supporting thousands of jobs and anchoring broader gas sector expansion.

Similarly, Nigeria’s LNG sector has leveraged local content policies to reduce project costs and build domestic capacity, while emerging producers such as Mozambique, Namibia, and The Gambia are embedding such frameworks into new developments.

The ministers’ withdrawal highlights a deeper divide within the global energy ecosystem—between international platforms and African stakeholders seeking greater control over how the continent’s resources are developed and discussed.

Critics argue that without meaningful African participation and alignment with local content priorities, industry forums risk losing relevance on the continent. Supporters of the boycott say it reflects growing frustration that hard-won gains in local capacity building are being overlooked.

The dispute also underscores a broader recalibration underway in Africa’s energy sector, where governments are balancing the need for foreign investment with demands for domestic value creation.

With the absence of key African policymakers, questions now arise over the credibility and influence of the London summit. While the event is expected to proceed, its ability to shape discourse on African energy may be diminished without direct ministerial engagement.

The message from the debacle is that for African producers, participation in global energy platforms will hinge not just on access to capital and markets, but on alignment with the continent’s development agenda.

As the industry navigates this shift, the standoff over the Africa Energies Summit may prove to be a defining moment in how Africa positions itself within the global energy conversation—less as a resource base, and more as a strategic actor setting its own terms.

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Michael Wakabi

The biblical account of Pharaoh’s dream in Genesis 41 has long been interpreted as allegory, theology, or moral instruction. Yet when looked at through the lens of climate risk and statecraft, it emerges as an early narrative on climate variability and institutional preparedness in the Nile Basin. Pharaoh dreams of seven fat cows devoured by seven lean cows and seven full ears of grain consumed by seven thin ones, which Joseph interprets as seven years of abundance followed by seven years of famine. He recommends building reserves during the years of plenty to mitigate the coming scarcity. Beneath its symbolic surface, the story speaks to enduring concerns about hydrological cycles and governance in the Nile basin.

Ancient Egypt was a hydraulic civilisation whose survival depended on the annual flooding of the Nile River. These floods determined agricultural productivity, food security, tax revenues, and political stability. Variability in the inundation was existential with insufficient flooding causing crop failure and famine, while excessive flooding could destroy settlements and disrupt society. Pharaoh’s dream captures the societal anxiety over this variability where abundance could quickly flip into scarcity, threatening the very foundations of the state.

Interestingly, the seven-year cycle in the narrative may echo natural oscillations observed in modern climate science. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climatic pattern, drives rainfall variability across East Africa. El Niño events tend to bring above-average rainfall, while La Niña often results in drought. ENSO cycles repeat roughly every two to seven years, closely aligning with the timeframe of the biblical narrative. While the story frames the forecast as divine revelation, it likely reflects long-term observation of hydrological extremes, encoded into collective memory as a lesson in preparedness.

Joseph’s response to the dream is administrative and strategic. He institutes centralised grain storage during surplus years, converting variability into a managed buffer against future scarcity. This mirrors modern climate risk management strategies: anticipating extremes, building reserves, and embedding resilience within institutional structures. Ancient societies such as Egypt had rudimentary monitoring systems. Nilometres measured flood levels and informed planning, illustrating that early attempts at climate adaptation were grounded in empirical observation, even if framed in religious terms.

Today, the Nile Basin spans eleven countries and faces intensified pressures from rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, population growth, and complex transboundary water governance. Hydrological modelling and ENSO-informed seasonal forecasts now allow authorities to anticipate wet and dry periods with unprecedented accuracy. Yet technological capacity alone does not guarantee resilience. The effectiveness of adaptation measures hinges on governance, or the ability of institutions to act on forecasts, coordinate resources, and maintain public trust.

Infrastructure remains a critical complement to forecasting. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) exemplifies modern efforts to mitigate the extremes of Nile hydrology that Pharaoh’s dream allegorically depicted. By storing and regulating the Blue Nile’s flow, GERD allows for a more controlled release of water downstream, smoothing out the sharp contrasts between flood and drought years. In periods of excessive rainfall, the reservoir can capture surplus water, reducing the risk of destructive floods in Sudan and Egypt. Conversely, during droughts, stored water can be released to sustain agriculture, maintain hydropower generation, and secure municipal water supply. While GERD cannot eliminate climate variability, its capacity for strategic water management transforms natural unpredictability into a manageable, predictable resource, echoing the ancient principle of building buffers during periods of abundance to prepare for scarcity.

Another lesson from Pharaoh’s dream is the timing of intervention. Preparedness during periods of abundance is far more effective than emergency measures during scarcity. Policymakers in the Nile Basin today face similar imperatives that require building strategic grain reserves, maintaining operational irrigation infrastructure, and establishing financial mechanisms to sustain water and food security. These measures ensure that cyclical patterns, whether seven-year biblical cycles or ENSO-induced rainfall variability, do not destabilise communities or national economies.

The epistemology of forecasting has changed, but the emotional and political stakes remain constant. Ancient narratives interpreted variability through divine communication; modern science interprets it through data, hydrological models, and satellite monitoring. Both approaches recognise the structural reality that amidst the tension between water abundance and scarcity, societal survival depends on foresight, coordination, and governance.

For policymakers, the story underscores several critical points. Climate variability is normal, yet unmanaged variability becomes crisis. Effective adaptation requires institutional credibility and capacity, regional cooperation, and strategic infrastructure investment. ENSO cycles demonstrate that hydrological extremes are neither new nor unpredictable. The enduring lesson is that governance determines whether these fluctuations produce stability or disaster.

Pharaoh’s dream is thus more than a theological curiosity; it is a cautionary tale with direct policy relevance. The Nile Basin’s modern water planners, regional institutions, and governments can draw three key lessons. First, cyclical climate phenomena, from biblical seven-year patterns to ENSO, have always shaped human livelihoods. Second, resilience must be built during periods of abundance through storage, infrastructure, and contingency planning. Third, data-informed governance and institutional foresight are essential for transforming potential crises into manageable risks.

In conclusion, Genesis 41 provides a lens through which to understand the historical roots of climate anxiety in the Nile Basin. While interpretations of the story vary, its implications for policy are clear. Ancient observers recognised that the Nile’s rhythms required active management; today, science allows policymakers to anticipate and mitigate those same rhythms. The interplay between abundance and scarcity, divine warning and empirical observation, remains profoundly relevant. Pharaoh’s dream reminds us that climate variability is an enduring challenge, but with foresight, governance, and infrastructure, its impacts can be managed, ensuring that cyclical extremes are opportunities for planning rather than catalysts for catastrophe.

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The UK government’s withdrawal of USD 1.15 billion in export-credit support for the Mozambique LNG project has reopened a familiar but unresolved debate: whether Africa’s energy ambitions can survive shifting Western climate politics. Announced this week, the move removes one of the largest public-finance guarantees behind the TotalEnergies-led development—an abrupt reversal that complicates financing plans just as the project was regaining momentum.

For Mozambique, the LNG project is not just a hydrocarbon investment. It is central to a long-term national strategy to expand fiscal space, industrial capacity and employment. With a projected output of 13 million tonnes of LNG annually, the project has been positioned as a rare opportunity for the country to convert significant gas reserves into revenue flows that can support public services and diversify the economy. Neighbouring countries have viewed it as a regional anchor for energy security and industrialisation.

Those expectations stalled after the 2021 insurgency in Cabo Delgado forced a freeze on construction. But improvements in the security environment—followed by TotalEnergies’ decision earlier this year to lift force majeure—had revived investor confidence. The US Export–Import Bank reapproved its loan in mid-2025, signalling support for a recalibrated development plan now under review by Mozambican authorities. Against this backdrop, the UK exit is striking.

UK Export Finance cited risk concerns, but the decision aligns with a broader shift within Western institutions, where public financing for fossil-fuel projects is increasingly constrained by domestic political pressure. For African governments, such moves revive longstanding concerns: development-critical infrastructure is often influenced by political debates unfolding thousands of kilometres away, with little accountability to the countries most affected.

Energy analysts say the UK decision underscores a widening policy gap. African states stress energy access, predictable baseload power and job creation—requirements that remain difficult to meet exclusively through emerging renewable systems. Western governments, meanwhile, face expectations to limit support for hydrocarbons irrespective of local development needs. The collision of these priorities shapes a financing environment that is both unpredictable and increasingly political.

The African Energy Chamber criticised the UK move, arguing that it threatens regional energy security and weakens efforts to reduce reliance on expensive fuel imports. But beyond the rhetoric, the structural issue is more complex: Africa’s largest energy projects still depend heavily on external capital whose availability fluctuates with political cycles abroad.

Mozambique LNG illustrates the stakes. The project is expected to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs in Cabo Delgado, where local content programmes and SME development are already taking shape. Government revenue from the gas sector has risen steadily—over 20pclast year—demonstrating the fiscal significance of sustained development. Delays now risk slowing this momentum, narrowing growth prospects at a moment when Mozambique is trying to consolidate post-conflict recovery and expand productive capacity.

For Africa, the UK decision raises a larger strategic question: how to build an energy-financing architecture that reflects its own priorities rather than external agendas. Regional investment tools, sovereign partnerships and financiers less exposed to political volatility will need to play a greater role if the continent is to secure long-term energy sovereignty.

Mozambique LNG remains a project of both promise and fragility—emblematic of how global climate politics, development needs and security realities intersect on the continent. The central question now is not whether LNG fits into Africa’s energy future, but whether the continent will retain agency over the terms of its own transition.

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Issued on the sidelines of COP30 in Belem, the joint statement urges governments to reaffirm the central role of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in regulating international aviation emissions. The signatories argue that only ICAO can provide the global framework needed to manage emissions effectively across a cross-border sector.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said governments must stay focused on unified implementation rather than piecemeal national measures.

“To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, governments must reaffirm ICAO’s role as the single global authority, fully implement CORSIA, and operationalize Article 6 to unlock climate finance for developing nations,” Walsh said. “Fragmented taxes and levies will not cut emissions—they risk diverting funds from real reduction projects and weakening connectivity.”

A major focus of the statement is the need to reinforce the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which all 193 ICAO member states have approved.

Airlines are expected to buy more than 200 million carbon credits during CORSIA’s first phase (2024–26), generating an estimated USD 4–5 billion in climate finance. That demand is projected to rise sharply, with nearly 2 billion credits expected to be offset through 2035. Much of that investment is intended for high-quality, independently verified emission-reduction projects in developing countries.

Article 6 Seen as Crucial to Climate Finance

The statement urges countries to operationalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement by issuing Letters of Authorization and enabling the release of CORSIA-Eligible Emissions Units. These steps are seen as essential to unlocking large-scale climate finance and accelerating sustainable development initiatives tied to aviation.

Warning Against Taxes and Levies

The coalition cautions that proposed ticket taxes and unilateral climate charges may undermine decarbonization efforts. According to the signatories, such measures risk reducing airlines’ ability to invest in cleaner technologies while disproportionately affecting developing economies and small island states that rely heavily on air links.

The statement carries the backing of a wide spectrum of regional and international aviation associations, including Airlines for Europe, Airports Council International, the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association, the Airlines Association of Southern Africa, the Air Transport Action Group, the World Travel & Tourism Council and others.

With global air travel continuing to rebound and aviation’s climate commitments under intense scrutiny, the call for coordinated action underscores a growing urgency: the industry’s most ambitious climate targets can only be met through unified, globally aligned policies.

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Industry estimates project Uganda’s home appliance sector to expand at an annual rate of 10.62 percent, driven by rapid urbanisation, a growing middle class, and shifting consumer preferences toward modern and energy-efficient products. Similar trends are unfolding in Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, where the sector is posting double-digit growth.

LG is executing its Uganda strategy through Appliance World Limited (AWL), its exclusive distributor in the market. The two partners are currently showcasing LG’s latest product lines at the 31st Uganda International Trade Fair, organised by the Uganda Manufacturers Association (UMA).

“Uganda is an important market for us with a young, dynamic population that is increasingly seeking modern household appliances that fit their lifestyles,” said Jane Kariuki, LG East Africa’s Regional Head of Marketing. “Participation in the UMA Trade Exhibition allows us to engage directly with our customers and partners, reinforcing our long-term commitment to Uganda and the region.”

LG’s exhibition is co-hosted by the Embassy of the Republic of Korea in Uganda, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), and the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), alongside Ugandan industry players.

Uganda’s appliance market, however, is becoming increasingly competitive as global and regional brands jostle for share. Industry observers note that demand for energy-efficient and sustainable products will sharpen further as households seek to manage rising utility costs.

In East Africa, LG has sought to match expansion with improved after-sales services—an area where consumer frustration has often eroded trust. Analysts argue that reliable servicing and access to spare parts will be critical if LG is to maintain momentum in Uganda.

Despite the positive outlook, challenges persist. High import costs, exchange rate volatility, and inflationary pressures continue to weigh on consumer purchasing power. Yet, stakeholders see Uganda’s youthful, urbanising demographic as a long-term demand driver.

“Our expansion in East Africa is about being closer to our customers,” Kariuki added. “We are seeing steady growth in demand for energy-efficient appliances that make life more convenient and sustainable. Strengthening our presence ensures Ugandan households can access innovative LG solutions backed by dependable after-sales service.”

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The assessment, released Tuesday in Geneva, forecasts that the world could produce up to 400 million tonnes (Mt) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by mid-century. While this represents an unprecedented scale-up from the 2 Mt expected in 2025, it falls 100 Mt short of the 500 Mt that airlines will require to fully meet the sector’s net-zero target.

While questions over whether the planet has enough sustainable feedstock to power aviation’s green transition have dogged industry and policymakers for years, IATA says the global biomass potential exceeds 12,000 Mt by 2050. After competing uses are considered, about 1,580 Mt could be available for SAF production — enough to support more than 300 Mt of bio-SAF. Complementing this with power-to-liquid (PtL) technologies, also known as e-SAF, could yield another 200 Mt.

“The message is clear: there is no shortage of sustainable feedstock,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said. “The barrier is not availability. It’s the speed at which we can roll out technologies to convert this potential into real fuel.”

The report highlights that today’s SAF supply chain is overly dependent on one technology: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which converts used cooking oil and similar lipids into jet fuel. While reliable, HEFA alone cannot scale to meet global demand.

Other technologies, including gasification, alcohol-to-jet, pyrolysis, and PtL, remain at demonstration or pilot scale. Without rapid commercialisation and infrastructure buildout, production will stall, IATA warns.

“Achieving 400 Mt by 2050 would be a huge leap from where we are now. But it would still leave us 20pc short,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. “That’s why accelerating technology rollout is the make-or-break factor.”

Regional hotspots, global stakes

The report underscores that SAF production will not be evenly spread. North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and ASEAN are identified as hotspots, with the US expected to lead thanks to abundant biomass and a mature biofuels industry.

Together, these regions could account for more than half of global SAF output by 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, while smaller in scale, also hold untapped potential, especially in waste-to-fuel pathways.

According to experts, aviation accounts for about 2–3pc of global CO₂ emissions. But it is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise given the lack of viable alternatives to liquid fuels for long-haul flights.

While the study provides evidence that net zero is technically possible, it warns that policy inertia could derail the effort.

Key barriers include slow technology commercialisation with most non-HEFA pathways yet to reach market maturity. There is also competition for feedstock because biomass is also needed for shipping, industry, and energy, making aviation’s prioritisation crucial.

The study also cites infrastructure gaps. PtL requires vast renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure that does not yet exist at scale.

The situation is further compounded by weak policy frameworks with inconsistent government incentives and fragmented regulation deterring investment.

Walsh called for governments to “put shovels in the ground now” to unlock private capital and de-risk SAF ventures.

“Delays will only make the challenge harder,” Thomsen added. “The next decade is decisive.”

Economic and social dividends

Beyond emissions, IATA argues that SAF could be an economic opportunity. Large-scale deployment would create jobs, stimulate regional economies, and support energy security goals. Countries that position themselves early as SAF producers could reap trade and industrialisation benefits.

“This is not just about decarbonisation,” Walsh said. “It’s about energy transition, economic resilience, and leadership in the industries of tomorrow.”

The IATA–Worley study delivers a mixed verdict – the world has the raw materials to decarbonise aviation, but the clock is ticking on scaling the technologies needed to convert them into usable fuel.

By 2050, the industry could fall 100 Mt short of its 500 Mt SAF requirement — a gap that can only be bridged if governments, energy producers, investors, and airlines act decisively in the next 5–10 years.

“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action,” Walsh stressed. “We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality. The time to act is now.”

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Organized by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and hosted by Cathay Pacific, the symposium is billed as a platform for regulators, financiers, fuel producers, and airlines to align on the practical measures required to accelerate aviation’s energy transition.

The stakes are significant. Despite repeated declarations of commitment from airlines, industry leaders argue that progress on key enablers such as Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, financing, and regulatory support has been slow. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, warned that the sector is “at a crucial point” where the lack of timely action by policymakers, oil companies, and aerospace manufacturers threatens to undermine the 2050 goal.

The Hong Kong meeting is strategically placed on the global calendar. It comes on the heels of the 42nd ICAO Assembly, where airlines pressed for stronger government policies on SAF and the integrity of the CORSIA offsetting framework, and it will feed into COP30, where attention is turning to implementation of climate pledges.

Against this backdrop, participants are expected to focus on four key areas: removing hurdles to SAF production, mobilizing financing for the estimated $4.7 trillion cost of decarbonization, integrating emerging technologies, and strengthening collaboration across the aviation value chain.

Cathay Pacific’s CEO, Ronald Lam, said the choice of Hong Kong as host city underlined the region’s potential to become a major hub for sustainable fuel development. “Collaboration across multiple sectors and regulators is essential for aviation to achieve its decarbonization goals, and gatherings like this provide a valuable platform for leading voices to come together to drive meaningful change,” he noted.

The program will feature senior policymakers, industry executives, financiers, and sustainability experts, with sessions ranging from green finance and supply chain resilience to technological innovation in low-carbon fuels.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist, emphasized that the symposium is more than an industry meeting. “Decarbonizing the airline industry is not just an industry issue but part of the global energy transition that cuts across the whole economy,” she said. “If treated as such, adopting a holistic approach encompassing policy, energy, finance, agriculture, and technology, it will be possible to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in 2050.”

Over 500 delegates are expected to attend the Hong Kong gathering on October 21–22, with both the sector and its critics watching closely to see whether it can move beyond pledges and generate the momentum needed for measurable progress.

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Launched in 2022, the Equi-Green program has already disbursed over UGX 22 billion in loans, enabling more than 51,000 clean energy products to reach homes, schools, businesses, and health centres across Uganda. These include solar lighting systems, improved cookstoves, solar-powered irrigation pumps, and water storage tanks. In communities long reliant on charcoal, firewood, and kerosene, these technologies are replacing harmful fuels with clean, renewable alternatives.

The impact is both environmental and social. In rural health centres and schools, solar systems have enhanced safety, extended working hours, and improved learning environments. Households now experience fewer cases of smoke-related illnesses, thanks to the adoption of clean cookstoves. In farming communities, solar irrigation is helping stabilize crop production and reduce vulnerability to rainfall fluctuations—boosting food security and income.

At the core of the Equi-Green model is inclusive financing. Loans start as low as UGX 200,000, making clean energy technologies accessible to even low-income households. Equity Bank partners with over 18 certified clean energy providers to ensure that recipients not only receive financing but also benefit from high-quality, durable products and technical support.

This grassroots energy revolution supports Uganda’s national agenda. The government’s Energy Transition Plan (2023) and National Development Plan IV (2025–2030) prioritize energy access, affordability, and sustainability, recognizing the dual role of renewable energy and oil and gas in achieving energy independence. Equity Bank’s investment in clean energy directly complements these public strategies, demonstrating how financial institutions can become powerful engines for development.

Uganda’s clean energy landscape still faces challenges—including policy gaps, infrastructure deficits, and market barriers. But Equi-Green shows what is possible when finance is leveraged as a tool for empowerment, not just profit.

This Global Energy Independence Day, Uganda’s progress offers a clear lesson: energy sovereignty doesn’t have to start with megawatts and power grids—it can begin with a solar lamp, a water tank, or a clean stove in a village home. And when finance meets innovation, even the most remote communities can light the way toward national transformation.

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