Global oil markets have entered unfamiliar territory, with JPMorgan’s commodities research team abandoning its baseline forecast for the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, warning that the path towards an end to the disruption has become increasingly difficult to model.

In its September 17, 2026, Oil Markets Weekly report, titled “Dry powder,” the bank’s analysts said they no longer had a baseline view of the market because they “simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”

The assessment highlights the growing uncertainty facing governments, businesses and consumers as disruptions to oil supplies, shipping routes and refining capacity continue to complicate expectations about energy prices.

The report was prepared by JPMorgan’s Global Commodities Research team, led by Natasha Kaneva, alongside Lyuba Savinova and Artem Fakhredtinov.

Economic red lines fail to contain the crisis

When the conflict began, JPMorgan’s analysts expected rising economic pressure to create limits on how far the disruption could extend.

Their initial assessment assumed that certain economic thresholds would constrain US policy, including oil prices reaching USD100 a barrel, gasoline approaching USD5 a gallon, headline inflation rising to 4pc and the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5pc.

The analysts had anticipated that these pressures would help drive some form of agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by June.

Six months later, however, the report said several of those thresholds had been crossed without producing a clearer exit strategy.

Oil had risen above USD100 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield had reached the 5pc range. US gasoline prices stood at USD4.37 a gallon and diesel had climbed to a record USD6.31 a gallon, according to the report.

The combination of elevated prices and depleted inventories has raised concerns about the ability of markets to absorb further supply disruptions, particularly as the northern hemisphere moves towards winter.

Reuters reported that JPMorgan estimated September fair value for oil at USD90 a barrel, compared with Brent crude trading at approximately USD106 at the time of the report. The difference indicated that market prices were reflecting a substantial risk premium associated with supply interruptions.

Supply routes under renewed pressure

JPMorgan’s assessment points to a widening geographical footprint of energy supply risks.

The report noted that Houthi attacks along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and into the Bab el-Mandeb had placed another important shipping route at risk. An attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline had also temporarily closed a key alternative route for crude exports.

The developments increase pressure on the global oil transportation system, where the availability of alternative routes and the capacity to move crude to refineries are important determinants of supply security.

The report estimated that approximately 10 million barrels per day of supply had already been disrupted, with the market potentially pricing in another four million barrels per day of losses.

However, the analysts distinguished between risks reflected in market prices and disruptions that have been confirmed and sustained. The difference matters because oil prices respond not only to actual shortages but also to expectations of future supply constraints.

A prolonged disruption could therefore generate additional price pressure even before a corresponding physical shortage becomes evident across all markets.

Beyond the Middle East

The report also highlighted developments affecting oil refining and infrastructure in Russia.

Ukrainian drone strikes reportedly targeted the Slavyansk refinery, followed by attacks on the Taneco refinery in Tatarstan and the Syzran refinery in Russia’s Samara region.

These incidents add another layer of uncertainty to the oil products market, particularly when refining capacity is already under pressure.

Refinery disruptions can have consequences beyond crude oil prices because diesel, petrol and other refined products depend on the availability of processing capacity, inventories and transport infrastructure.

JPMorgan’s concerns therefore extend beyond the immediate disruption of crude supplies to the broader capacity of the energy system to maintain reliable deliveries.

The pressure on fuel markets

One of the report’s most significant observations concerns diesel.

The bank said diesel prices had reached an all-time high of USD6.31 a gallon heading into winter, while inventories remained at historically low levels.

Diesel is central to road freight, agriculture, construction, manufacturing and other economic activities. Persistent price increases can therefore affect a wide range of businesses, increasing operating costs and potentially feeding into the prices of goods and services.

The impact is not uniform across economies. Fuel pricing structures, taxation, exchange rates, subsidies and supply arrangements determine how changes in international oil prices reach consumers and businesses in individual markets.

Nevertheless, prolonged international energy market disruption creates a challenging environment for fuel-importing economies.

No clear endgame

JPMorgan’s decision to withdraw its baseline forecast is significant because financial institutions routinely use scenario modelling to assess how geopolitical developments may affect commodity prices.

The analysts’ conclusion does not mean that oil prices must continue rising indefinitely. Rather, it reflects the difficulty of assigning a sufficiently reliable central scenario to a conflict whose duration, geographic reach and economic consequences remain uncertain.

Indeed, oil prices subsequently eased on September 21 amid reported hopes of diplomatic progress and partial recovery in Saudi exports, demonstrating how rapidly market expectations can change.

But that movement does not resolve the structural risks identified in the JPMorgan report. It illustrates the distinction between short-term price movements and the underlying uncertainty surrounding supply routes, inventories and geopolitical developments.

For businesses and policymakers, the immediate challenge is to prepare for a range of outcomes rather than rely on a single oil price assumption.

For Uganda, that means paying close attention to international energy developments while strengthening domestic measures that can help limit the economic impact of external shocks.

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President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni today presided over the groundbreaking for Uganda’s Kampala Storage Terminal (KST) in Namwabula, Mpigi District, launching construction of a USD310 million facility designed to hold up to 320 million litres of refined petroleum products.

The terminal, being developed by the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), is expected to be completed in September 2028, following 24 months of construction under an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract.

The project adds a major storage and distribution component to Uganda’s developing petroleum value chain as the country advances towards domestic oil production, refining and regional petroleum trade.

Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony, President Museveni welcomed cooperation among East African countries in developing the region’s petroleum sector, linking Uganda’s storage ambitions to broader regional energy security.

“I am happy that Her Excellency Samia Suluhu has sent a delegation, so we are working together with East Africa to develop our petroleum,” Museveni said, referring to the Tanzanian President’s delegation at the ceremony.

The President further said Uganda would participate in the development of a larger refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, as part of regional efforts to strengthen petroleum security.

Storage capacity and regional distribution

The KST will provide additional capacity for Uganda to maintain petroleum reserves, receive imported products and support the distribution of fuel to domestic and regional markets.

Uganda currently consumes approximately 240 million litres of petroleum products each month, including petrol, diesel, jet fuel and kerosene. The new facility is intended to strengthen the country’s ability to manage supply disruptions, improve storage resilience and support the operations of oil marketing companies.

The terminal will complement UNOC’s existing 30-million-litre Jinja Storage Terminal and private-sector storage facilities. Its planned functions include Government strategic reserves, commercial storage and handling services for oil marketing companies, and the distribution of petroleum products.

Located on approximately 300 acres at Namwabula Estate, the facility is expected to serve Kampala, the Central Region and other parts of Uganda, while supporting the country’s ambitions to become a regional petroleum distribution hub.

UNOC Board Chairman Mathias Katamba described the terminal as a major milestone in Uganda’s petroleum sector, saying it would contribute to positioning the country as a regional hub for petroleum products.

Katamba said UNOC was ready to commence implementation of the project after securing the necessary Government and building permits from relevant local authorities, as well as a petroleum facility construction permit from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development.

Linking storage to domestic refining

The Kampala Storage Terminal is being developed as part of a wider infrastructure system that will connect imported and locally refined petroleum products.

The terminal is expected to link with the planned refinery in Hoima through a proposed 211-kilometre multi-products pipeline. It will also incorporate the future Mpigi Remote Refinery Terminal (MRRT), designed to receive, store and dispatch petroleum products produced locally.

Once the refinery, pipeline, MRRT and KST are operational, Uganda will have an interconnected system for receiving, storing and distributing petroleum products, reducing the separation between crude oil production, refining and downstream supply infrastructure.

The project is aligned with the Government’s commitments under the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV), which seeks to increase national storage capacity for refined petroleum products from 99.1 million litres in financial year 2023/24 to 150 million litres by 2029/30.

The planned expansion of the Jinja Storage Terminal and the preparation of regional strategic storage facilities are also part of the Government’s petroleum infrastructure agenda.

Museveni raises environmental concerns

While launching the project, President Museveni cautioned against encroachment on wetlands and other water bodies, emphasising the need to protect the environment as Uganda expands its industrial infrastructure.

He also raised concerns about the proximity of a garbage dumping site to the planned petroleum storage facility, describing the situation as dangerous and calling for the site to be relocated.

“We must find alternative means of dealing with waste. One of the ways is through incineration, which is also a source of electricity,” Museveni said.

The remarks introduce an environmental and public safety dimension to the development of a large petroleum storage facility, particularly concerning waste management and the protection of surrounding land and water resources.

The KST groundbreaking comes two weeks after President Museveni announced the name Pearl Sweet for Uganda’s crude oil, as the country prepares for first oil and advances plans for domestic refining.

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President Yoweri Museveni is right to insist that Uganda’s oil revenues must be used to build a productive and durable economy rather than finance a temporary consumption boom.

The President’s message at the naming ceremony for Uganda’s crude oil at Kingfisher was particularly important because it went beyond the first barrel. He argued that the country’s finite petroleum resources should create productive capacity in power, transport, railways, universities, industrialisation and human capital that will outlive the oil fields.

That is the right ambition, but there is a less glamorous question that Uganda must confront before the oil money begins to flow in earnest. How much of that money will actually reach the projects for which it is intended?

The greatest threat to Uganda’s oil transformation may not be a collapse in oil prices or even the depletion of the resource. It could be the familiar leakage that occurs when public money passes through weak procurement systems, inflated contracts, poor-quality works and inadequate supervision.

This is why Uganda needs to treat public procurement and project implementation as two sides of the same oil-revenue protection system.

Cleaning up procurement is essential but it is not enough. A perfectly conducted tender can still produce a poor road, bridge, hospital or power project if implementation is not properly supervised. Conversely, strong technical supervision cannot fully compensate for a procurement process that awards contracts at inflated prices or to firms without the capacity to deliver.

The country therefore needs a much tighter chain of accountability; from project selection and budgeting, through procurement and contracting, to physical implementation, payment and eventual handover.

This matters because infrastructure is likely to absorb a substantial share of the public investment Uganda hopes to make from its petroleum revenues.

A kilometre of road that costs more than it should is oil revenue lost. A poorly constructed bridge that requires premature reconstruction represents another claim on future revenue. A public building that takes years to complete while contractors receive payments is capital that has failed to generate the intended economic return.

The leakage is therefore not simply the cash allegedly lost to corruption. It is also the economic value that Uganda fails to obtain for every shilling spent.

That distinction is important because corruption is often discussed in terms of money disappearing from government accounts. But the larger economic damage can occur when corruption and weak oversight result in projects being unnecessarily expensive, delayed or badly constructed.

Uganda could therefore enter the oil era with billions of dollars of additional public resources and still fail to achieve the economic transformation those resources should finance.

The answer should be a national infrastructure vigilance system that follows projects from the drawing board to completion.

Major oil-funded projects should have clear costs, timelines, measurable outputs and publicly accountable implementing agencies. Payments should be tied rigorously to verified milestones. Independent technical inspections should be routine for major projects rather than an afterthought when problems emerge.

Uganda also needs to strengthen the capacity of institutions responsible for procurement and project oversight. The objective should not simply be to catch corruption after money has been lost, but to make it increasingly difficult for leakage to occur in the first place.

There is also a role for citizens, professional bodies, the media and Parliament in this process.

Public scrutiny should extend beyond the announcement of a new project or the signing of a contract. Ugandans should be asking a few questions. What was promised? What was budgeted? Who was contracted? What has actually been delivered? At what cost and to what standard?

Museveni’s call for an integrated petroleum strategy — linking oil to refining, energy generation, industrialisation and human capital — is sound because Uganda’s objective should be to use oil to diversify the economy rather than make it more dependent on hydrocarbons.

But diversification itself requires disciplined investment. The refinery should generate industrial opportunities. Reliable electricity should support manufacturing. Better transport and rail infrastructure should reduce the cost of moving goods. Universities and technical institutions should produce the skills required by an increasingly sophisticated economy.

None of these outcomes is automatic simply because oil revenues become available. Oil can provide the capital. It cannot provide the discipline to spend that capital well.

That discipline must come from institutions. Uganda has already spent years preparing for first oil. It has negotiated investments, built infrastructure, trained petroleum professionals and developed the regulatory framework for the sector.

The next institutional and equally important challenge is ensuring that the wealth generated by the resource is converted into assets rather than absorbed by waste and rent-seeking.

The President’s warning against repeating the mistakes of other African oil producers should therefore be taken seriously. The lesson from the continent is not merely that oil revenues can encourage excessive consumption. It is that resource wealth can magnify existing weaknesses in governance and public financial management.

Uganda’s best defence is to ensure that every major investment financed from oil revenues is subjected to clean procurement, competitive pricing, competent contracting and relentless implementation oversight.

The country does not need to create another layer of bureaucracy for its own sake. It needs to make existing accountability mechanisms work better and ensure that responsibility for project outcomes cannot be passed endlessly from one institution to another.

With first oil now approaching, this is the right moment to establish the standards by which the oil era will be judged. The ultimate measure should not be how much oil Uganda produces or how much revenue enters the Treasury.

It should be what that money builds. If oil revenues produce reliable infrastructure, productive industries, skilled citizens and a stronger private sector, Uganda will have converted a finite resource into enduring wealth. If too much of the money disappears through inflated procurement, unfinished projects and weak supervision, the country will have extracted the oil without extracting its full economic value. ultimately, oil wealth must be protected not only at the wellhead, but all the way to the completed project.

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Uganda is moving to give its long-awaited crude oil a place on the global petroleum map, naming its export grade Pearl Sweet as the country prepares to start commercial production in November 2026.

The name, unveiled by President Yoweri Museveni at the Kingfisher production facility on the shores of Lake Albert on Wednesday, gives Uganda’s crude a commercial identity ahead of its entry into the international oil market.

It is a seemingly simple branding exercise, but one with important commercial implications. Crude oil is traded by grade, with refiners and traders differentiating supplies according to characteristics such as density, sulphur content and refining yields.

Uganda’s Energy and Mineral Development Minister, Dr Monica Musenero, said the name captures both the physical characteristics of the crude and its national identity.

“Sweet” refers to its very low sulphur content, which makes it relatively cheaper to refine, while “Pearl” draws on Uganda’s long-standing description as the Pearl of Africa.

The naming marks another step in the transformation of Uganda’s petroleum resources from an exploration story into an identifiable commodity that can be marketed to international refiners.

Unlike a generic reference to “Ugandan crude”, a named grade gives buyers a specific product against which its quality and commercial characteristics can be assessed.

Major producing countries similarly attach identities to their crude grades. Brent, for example, originated from the North Sea, while Ghana’s Jubilee crude takes its name from the field that launched the country’s oil production. Senegal’s Sangomar became another new African crude grade after production began in 2024.

For Uganda, Pearl Sweet now becomes part of the commercial vocabulary through which its crude will enter the global market.

After nearly two decades since commercially viable oil discoveries were confirmed in the Albertine Graben in 2006, he timing is significant. Uganda is approaching the point where its crude will move from underground reserves to export cargoes.

The country’s crude, however, comes with a logistical challenge. It is relatively waxy and requires heating to remain fluid during transportation. The crude will therefore be transported through the 1,443-kilometre East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) to the port of Tanga in Tanzania.

The pipeline, now at 91pc completion and described by its developers as the world’s longest heated crude oil pipeline, is being built to provide Uganda with an export corridor to international markets.

The Lake Albert basin contains an estimated 6.5 billion barrels of oil in place, of which between 1.4 billion and 1.7 billion barrels are considered recoverable, according to the Uganda National Oil Company.

Production will be led by two major developments — the Tilenga project operated by TotalEnergies and the Kingfisher project operated by CNOOC — with combined peak production expected to reach about 230,000 barrels per day.

At Kingfisher, the central processing facility has capacity to handle 40,000 barrels per day.

The scale of the projects places Uganda among the new African oil producers seeking to convert petroleum discoveries into export revenues and wider economic activity.

The journey, however, has been considerably longer than initially anticipated.

Commercial quantities were confirmed in the Albertine Graben in 2006, but development was delayed by negotiations, infrastructure requirements and other challenges. The sector received a major boost with the 2022 Final Investment Decision, which unlocked about USD15 billion in planned oil and related infrastructure investment.

The production schedule has subsequently slipped several times. The government and industry now say the project is entering its final stretch, with EACOP reported to be more than 91pc complete and first oil targeted for November.

That makes the christening of Pearl Sweet more than a ceremonial milestone as it signals a shift in Uganda’s oil story from finding the resource and building the infrastructure to preparing a product for the market.

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Africa’s rapidly evolving carbon markets will come under the spotlight in Kigali in October as governments, investors, project developers and corporate buyers gather to examine how the continent can turn stronger policy frameworks into actual climate-finance transactions.

The Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) 2026, scheduled for 13–15 October in Kigali, Rwanda, comes at a critical point for the market as African countries move from carbon-market readiness towards implementation under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 framework.

The summit will focus on the practical challenge of converting Africa’s substantial natural and climate assets into credible, investable projects while ensuring that communities and host countries capture meaningful economic benefits.

The African Union is rolling out its Africa Action Plan on Carbon Markets, while initiatives such as the AUDA-NEPAD African Principles for Equity and Integrity in Carbon Markets are placing greater emphasis on governance, transparency and benefit-sharing. Countries including Ghana are also advancing Article 6 authorisation systems and project pipelines.

For investors and buyers, however, policy progress will need to be matched by credible measurement, reporting and verification (MRV), transaction certainty, bankable projects and confidence in the integrity of carbon credits.

Hosted by Rwanda’s Ministry of Environment, CMAS 2026 is expected to bring together representatives from more than 10 African governments, alongside 20-plus investors and financiers and major institutions across the carbon-market value chain.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and African Development Bank (AfDB) are host organisations, with the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) as host partner and AUDA-NEPAD as strategic institutional partner. GIZ, BeZero Carbon, Welthungerhilfe, FSD Africa, UNEP and Carbon Standards International are among the additional partners and contributors.

Discussions will centre on how Article 6 and CORSIA can move from regulatory frameworks into transactions, what buyers are prepared to fund and what is required to make African carbon projects bankable, insurable and verifiable.

The three-day programme will feature leadership discussions, investor and buyer roundtables, project showcases, technical workshops, solution labs and deal rooms. Key themes will include carbon-market regulation, voluntary demand, offtake agreements, MRV and ratings, regional market alignment, early-stage carbon finance, private-capital de-risking, registry interoperability and the expansion of validation and verification capacity.

A UNEP-hosted Nature Deal Room will provide a dedicated platform for governments, buyers, investors, standards bodies and market intermediaries to advance nature-based carbon transactions.

The summit also reflects a growing recognition that Africa’s carbon-market opportunity extends beyond the sale of credits.

“For UNDP, the true value of carbon markets lies in what they make possible: finance for national priorities, decent jobs, resilient livelihoods, and sustainable development,” said Fatmata Lovetta Sesay, UNDP Resident Representative in Rwanda.

With governments tightening market rules and investors demanding greater certainty, CMAS 2026 is positioned to test whether Africa can move beyond the promise of carbon markets towards the transactions, investment and local capacity needed to make climate finance work at scale.

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In a rare endorsement from Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC), Ugandan engineering and energy services firm On Track Technical has been recognised as a model contractor after demonstrating the ability to deliver electricity distribution projects on schedule and within approved budgets.

The recognition came on Tuesday, August 4, when the company appeared before PAC to account for the execution of government contracts worth about UGX7 billion.

Instead of facing the usual scrutiny associated with parliamentary oversight hearings, On Track Technical’s directors received praise from committee members who described the company’s performance as an example of how public infrastructure contracts can be delivered efficiently.

The firm was represented by Director Bwengye Tadeo and Operations Manager Fredrick Tinka, who outlined the company’s track record in supporting Uganda’s electricity distribution expansion through civil engineering, construction, energy and facility management services.

Tinka told the committee that since its establishment in 2010, On Track Technical had built a reputation around professional project management, strong technical teams and financial discipline.

“Our ability to complete projects on time and within the contract sum is because at On Track we employ professionals and ensure that every department has the right people occupying the right positions for a specific task,” he said.

The company’s first major electricity distribution assignment came in 2011 when then electricity distributor Umeme Limited contracted it to refurbish the Masaka Central–Mitala Maria distribution line at a cost of UGX1.1 billion.

The company later executed another Umeme project to refurbish the Mutundwe–Lubowa integration feeder in Kampala valued at UGX465 million, followed by the Mubende–Kakumiro 33kV feeder project worth UGX615 million in 2014.

Its largest assignment came through the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development’s Rural Electrification Agency (REA), where On Track Technical was contracted to construct electricity networks in several districts under the Community and Government cost-sharing model.

The UGX5.1 billion project was completed within 19 months, meeting the contractual timelines and avoiding cost overruns.

The company told MPs that its approach is built around technical competence, close project supervision and ensuring that operations continue even when payment cycles from clients delay.

Tinka said the company maintains pre-approved financing facilities with several financial institutions to bridge cash flow gaps and prevent project interruptions.

“We have pre-approved facilities with several financial institutions to ensure we have access to finance as we wait for client disbursements,” he said.

This approach, he added, enables the company to maintain momentum on infrastructure projects while protecting delivery timelines.

PAC members, who routinely investigate delayed projects, inflated costs and poor contractor performance in government programmes, commended the company’s approach.

The committee described On Track Technical as one of the best-performing service providers in Uganda’s electricity distribution sector, citing its professionalism, quality workmanship and commitment to improving reliability of power networks.

The recognition comes as Uganda accelerates investment in electricity access and distribution infrastructure under efforts to expand industrialisation and economic growth.

Reliable electricity networks remain critical to supporting manufacturing, commercial activity and household access, making efficient execution of distribution projects a key component of national development plans.

For On Track Technical, the parliamentary recognition marks a shift in the public conversation around local contractors, demonstrating that domestic firms can successfully execute complex infrastructure assignments when supported by technical capacity, financial planning and effective management.

The company’s performance also highlights the growing role of Ugandan engineering firms in delivering critical infrastructure projects that underpin the country’s economic transformation agenda.

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Uganda is seeking to position technology and innovation at the centre of its energy transition and industrialisation agenda as it hosts the 4th Power & Elec International Expo 2026, bringing together investors, manufacturers, policymakers and technology firms to explore opportunities across the country’s expanding power sector.

The three-day exhibition, organised by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development in partnership with Exhibitions and Trade Services India Pvt. Ltd. (ETSIPL), Lanestar Enterprises Uganda Ltd., the Uganda Manufacturers Association (UMA) and other sector stakeholders, runs from July 9 to 11 at the UMA Multipurpose Hall in Kampala.

Speaking ahead of the event, Minister for Energy and Mineral Development Dr. Monica Musenero Masanza said Uganda’s next phase of development will depend not only on expanding electricity generation but also on using energy to drive industrialisation, innovation and economic transformation.

Held under the theme “Scaling Energy 10X: Technology, Sustainability and Global Impact,” the Expo is expected to attract delegates from China, India, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye and other countries, creating a platform for investment promotion, technology transfer and business partnerships.

The event comes as Uganda aligns its energy strategy with Vision 2040, the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) and the government’s ambition of achieving ten-fold economic growth.

“The next phase of Uganda’s transformation is not simply about generating more electricity. It is about ensuring that every unit of energy powers productive enterprise, supports industrialisation, creates jobs, drives innovation and improves the livelihoods of our people,” Musenero said.

She noted that the Ministry is increasingly focusing on three strategic questions: where the investment is, where industries are located and whether energy supply is keeping pace with economic demand.

The approach reflects a broader shift from expanding electricity infrastructure alone to maximising the economic value generated from Uganda’s energy and mineral resources.

According to the Ministry, Uganda’s installed electricity generation capacity has grown to 2,098 megawatts following the commissioning of the Karuma Hydropower Project and the Nyagak III Hydropower Plant. National electricity access has reached 62.05 percent, including 24.05 percent through the national grid and 38 percent through off-grid solutions, supported by more than 2.75 million electricity connections.

Government aims to achieve universal electricity access by 2030 through continued investment in transmission infrastructure and decentralised clean energy systems.

Beyond expanding generation, Uganda is embracing emerging technologies including artificial intelligence, smart grids, battery energy storage, digital metering and advanced energy management systems to improve efficiency and strengthen the resilience of the power sector.

The Ministry is also promoting private-sector participation through policies supporting independent power transmission, renewable energy development, net metering and energy efficiency programmes.

Several large-scale generation projects remain under development, including the 840MW Ayago Hydropower Project, the 392MW Oriang project, the 400MW Kiba project and geothermal exploration, alongside continued investment in solar, wind and nuclear energy.

Uganda is simultaneously advancing its electric mobility strategy through the rollout of a national electric vehicle charging infrastructure and regulatory framework, while preparatory work continues on the proposed 8,400MW nuclear power programme in Buyende District. Human resource development for the nuclear industry is also underway through specialised training programmes at Soroti University.

A key feature of the Expo will be the Power & Elec Forum on July 10, where innovators, entrepreneurs and technology companies will discuss emerging energy technologies under the theme “Powering the Future: Innovation Pathways to 10-fold Energy Scale.”

The exhibition forms part of Uganda’s efforts to attract investors capable of bringing not only capital but also technology, skills development and manufacturing capacity as the country seeks to build a more competitive and value-driven energy economy.

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Rwanda has become the latest East African country to bypass Kenyan oil marketers in a move aimed at strengthening fuel security and reducing the cost of petroleum imports, following a path first taken by Uganda in 2023.

Beginning in August 2026, Kigali will start importing fuel directly from OQ Trading, the Omani government’s energy trading company, under a government-to-government (G2G) agreement managed by the Rwanda National Petroleum Corporation (RNPC). The new arrangement ends decades of reliance on Kenya’s fuel import framework, which had seen petroleum supplied through Kenyan oil marketing companies.

The decision represents another setback for Kenya’s once-dominant G2G fuel supply model, which has steadily lost regional influence since Uganda shifted its transit fuel imports to a similar state-to-state arrangement nearly three years ago.

Uganda’s departure was itself triggered by a diplomatic dispute after Kenyan authorities declined to grant the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) a licence to import fuel independently of Kenya’s G2G programme. The disagreement eventually reached the East African Court of Justice before the two governments resolved the matter, paving the way for UNOC to take charge of Uganda’s fuel imports.

Like Uganda, Rwanda says the direct procurement model is designed to improve energy security, reduce dependence on private intermediaries and help stabilise domestic fuel prices amid volatile global oil markets.

The move comes as Rwanda contends with some of the highest pump prices in East Africa, driven by supply disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East and continued uncertainty in global energy markets.

Although Rwanda will source fuel directly from Oman, it is not abandoning Kenyan infrastructure altogether. Industry executives say the country is expected to continue transporting part of its imports through the Port of Mombasa and the Kenya Pipeline Company network, alongside its existing logistics through Tanzania’s Port of Dar es Salaam.

According to Business Daily, senior Rwandan energy officials are expected in Nairobi to negotiate storage and transportation arrangements with the Kenya Pipeline Company as the transition begins.

Rwanda currently receives the majority of its fuel through Dar es Salaam, with roughly 30 percent arriving via Kenyan suppliers. The shift therefore primarily affects the commercial structure of fuel procurement rather than the transport corridors themselves.

The latest development reinforces a growing regional trend towards greater government control over strategic fuel supplies. Uganda has argued that its G2G arrangement has improved security of supply while insulating the country from excessive price mark-ups associated with multiple intermediaries.

Rwanda’s adoption of a similar model suggests that East African governments are increasingly prioritising direct state-to-state procurement as they seek to shield their economies from global energy shocks while retaining access to regional transport infrastructure.

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For years, the conversation around clean cooking in Uganda has centred on environmental conservation and reducing pressure on forests. Increasingly, however, the business case is becoming just as compelling.

As energy costs continue to squeeze profit margins across the hospitality industry, restaurants are beginning to view efficient cooking technology not as a sustainability initiative but as an operational investment capable of delivering measurable financial returns.

One business illustrating this shift is Mbarara-based Polland Food Centre, which says it has reduced its daily cooking fuel costs by 60 percent after replacing traditional charcoal stoves with energy-efficient Ecostoves.

The restaurant, which opened in 2025, had been spending between UGX40,000 and UGX50,000 each day on charcoal to meet demand for its diverse menu. Besides the high fuel bills, traditional stoves generated excessive smoke, wasted heat and created difficult working conditions for kitchen staff.

Seeking a more efficient alternative, the restaurant installed built-in Ecostoves supplied by Elsmart Conservation Technologies. The insulated cooking systems use high-density honeycomb briquettes designed to burn longer while retaining heat more effectively than conventional charcoal stoves.

The result has been a reduction in daily fuel expenditure to about UGX20,000, allowing the business to redirect savings towards growth while improving operational efficiency.

“Previously, we spent between UGX40,000 and UGX50,000 on charcoal every day. Now we spend only about UGX20,000 on briquettes to prepare food for the entire day,” said Muhuza John Bosco, Head Chef at Polland Food Centre.

“The stoves are cost-effective. We cook faster, the insulation preserves heat, keeping food warm throughout the day without additional fuel, and since we started using them, we have not recorded a single accident.”

Beyond the reduction in fuel costs, the restaurant reports shorter cooking times, cleaner kitchens and improved staff welfare due to lower smoke emissions and reduced exposure to heat.

The experience reflects a broader trend emerging among Ugandan businesses seeking to reduce operating costs through energy-efficient technologies rather than relying solely on higher sales to improve profitability.

For sectors such as hospitality, food processing and small manufacturing—where cooking or heating represents a significant share of operating expenses—energy efficiency is increasingly becoming a competitive differentiator.

The transition is also receiving support from financial institutions and development partners promoting cleaner energy adoption.

According to Virginia Semakula, Equity Bank Uganda’s Manager for the Energy, Environment and Climate Change Pillar, businesses across multiple sectors are already benefiting from investments in cleaner technologies.

“Through our partnership with GIZ, we have expanded access to clean cooking systems and solar technologies across different communities,” she said.

“Businesses have reduced dependence on charcoal, firewood and kerosene by adopting cleaner cooking solutions, while salons, retail shops, households and farms are increasingly using solar-powered systems to lower energy costs and extend operating hours.”

Uganda remains heavily dependent on biomass for cooking, with charcoal and firewood accounting for the dominant share of household and commercial energy use. That dependence exposes businesses to fluctuating fuel prices while contributing to deforestation and indoor air pollution.

Energy-efficient cooking technologies are increasingly being promoted as part of the country’s wider clean energy transition, offering businesses an opportunity to lower operating costs while supporting environmental sustainability.

For Polland Food Centre, the financial gains have been significant enough to influence its expansion strategy. Management plans to install additional Ecostoves as it increases kitchen capacity and intends to equip a planned second branch with the same technology from the outset.

The experience underscores a growing reality for Uganda’s small and medium-sized enterprises: investments once viewed primarily through the lens of environmental responsibility are increasingly proving their value on the balance sheet.

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Escalating energy costs are emerging as one of the biggest operational challenges facing Uganda’s education sector, prompting growing interest in renewable energy solutions that can lower costs and improve long-term sustainability.

The issue came into sharp focus during a business forum organised by Stanbic Bank Uganda for education sector clients, where school proprietors, energy experts, financiers and policymakers examined how renewable energy could help institutions manage rising expenditure while improving service delivery.

The forum forms part of Stanbic Bank’s year-long regional business engagement programme marking the bank’s 35 years of operation in Uganda.

Participants heard that while access to electricity has expanded significantly across the country, many schools continue to grapple with high utility bills, unreliable power supply, rising generator fuel costs and dependence on firewood for cooking.

For institutions operating under tight budgets, these costs are increasingly competing with spending on infrastructure, learning materials and staff development.

Eng. David Birimumaaso, Assistant Commissioner for Energy Efficiency and Conservation at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, said access to reliable and affordable energy remains critical for improving educational outcomes.

“Access to reliable and affordable energy is essential for creating conducive learning environments. Renewable solutions can bridge existing gaps while supporting Uganda’s broader climate and development objectives,” he said.

The discussion highlighted a broader shift taking place across Uganda’s economy as businesses and institutions seek alternatives to conventional energy sources in response to rising operating costs.

For schools, renewable energy is increasingly being viewed through a commercial lens rather than purely as an environmental intervention.

Tunde Thorpe, Stanbic Bank Uganda’s Executive Head of Business and Commercial Banking, said investments in clean energy can help institutions reduce inefficiencies that drain resources.

“Many institutions still struggle with energy-related inefficiencies that affect service delivery. Clean energy solutions free up resources that can be redirected to improving learning outcomes,” Thorpe said.

He noted that access to financing remains a major barrier for many institutions seeking to transition to renewable technologies, adding that Stanbic has developed financing solutions aimed at making such investments more affordable.

Uganda’s energy landscape has evolved significantly in recent years. Current estimates show national electricity access at 56.7 percent, with solar energy accounting for 37.7 percent of access compared to 18.9 percent connected through the national grid.

Despite this progress, many educational institutions, particularly those located outside major urban centres, continue to experience energy reliability challenges that affect teaching, administration and student welfare.

Noah Ochima of the Uganda Energy Credit Capitalisation Company said technological advances and falling costs have made renewable energy systems increasingly viable for schools.

“Renewable energy is no longer a future option; it is a present-day necessity,” he said.

Private sector players participating in the forum argued that institutions should increasingly view renewable energy investments as long-term cost management strategies capable of generating measurable financial returns.

Mohammed Lubowa, Managing Director of All in Trade Uganda, said schools should assess renewable energy projects based on their ability to deliver operational savings and improve energy security over time.

Beyond electricity, participants also highlighted the continued dependence on firewood by many schools, raising concerns about environmental sustainability, health impacts and rising fuel costs.

Melissa Nyakwera, Stanbic Bank’s Head of Commercial Banking, said addressing these challenges would require stronger collaboration between financial institutions, government agencies, development partners and energy providers.

She said the bank is expanding support to schools through financing, technical advisory services and partnerships designed to accelerate adoption of sustainable technologies.

The bank is also offering financing products beyond energy solutions, including asset financing for school transport and lending facilities that rely on transaction history rather than traditional collateral requirements.

As operating costs continue to rise, school administrators are under pressure to find efficiencies without compromising educational quality. Renewable energy, once viewed primarily as an environmental consideration, is now emerging as a strategic investment capable of protecting budgets, improving reliability and strengthening the long-term sustainability of educational institutions.

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