IATA sees technology rollout as main bottleneck in scaling SAF to Net Zero by 2050

September 24, 2025 in Business, Companies, Energy, Science and Technology, Travel & Tourism by Editor

The global airline industry has the sustainable biomass to fuel its journey to net zero by 2050, but the pace of technology deployment threatens to hobble progress, a new study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Worley Consulting has revealed.

The assessment, released Tuesday in Geneva, forecasts that the world could produce up to 400 million tonnes (Mt) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by mid-century. While this represents an unprecedented scale-up from the 2 Mt expected in 2025, it falls 100 Mt short of the 500 Mt that airlines will require to fully meet the sector’s net-zero target.

While questions over whether the planet has enough sustainable feedstock to power aviation’s green transition have dogged industry and policymakers for years, IATA says the global biomass potential exceeds 12,000 Mt by 2050. After competing uses are considered, about 1,580 Mt could be available for SAF production — enough to support more than 300 Mt of bio-SAF. Complementing this with power-to-liquid (PtL) technologies, also known as e-SAF, could yield another 200 Mt.

“The message is clear: there is no shortage of sustainable feedstock,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said. “The barrier is not availability. It’s the speed at which we can roll out technologies to convert this potential into real fuel.”

The report highlights that today’s SAF supply chain is overly dependent on one technology: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which converts used cooking oil and similar lipids into jet fuel. While reliable, HEFA alone cannot scale to meet global demand.

Other technologies, including gasification, alcohol-to-jet, pyrolysis, and PtL, remain at demonstration or pilot scale. Without rapid commercialisation and infrastructure buildout, production will stall, IATA warns.

“Achieving 400 Mt by 2050 would be a huge leap from where we are now. But it would still leave us 20pc short,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. “That’s why accelerating technology rollout is the make-or-break factor.”

Regional hotspots, global stakes

The report underscores that SAF production will not be evenly spread. North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and ASEAN are identified as hotspots, with the US expected to lead thanks to abundant biomass and a mature biofuels industry.

Together, these regions could account for more than half of global SAF output by 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, while smaller in scale, also hold untapped potential, especially in waste-to-fuel pathways.

According to experts, aviation accounts for about 2–3pc of global CO₂ emissions. But it is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise given the lack of viable alternatives to liquid fuels for long-haul flights.

While the study provides evidence that net zero is technically possible, it warns that policy inertia could derail the effort.

Key barriers include slow technology commercialisation with most non-HEFA pathways yet to reach market maturity. There is also competition for feedstock because biomass is also needed for shipping, industry, and energy, making aviation’s prioritisation crucial.

The study also cites infrastructure gaps. PtL requires vast renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure that does not yet exist at scale.

The situation is further compounded by weak policy frameworks with inconsistent government incentives and fragmented regulation deterring investment.

Walsh called for governments to “put shovels in the ground now” to unlock private capital and de-risk SAF ventures.

“Delays will only make the challenge harder,” Thomsen added. “The next decade is decisive.”

Economic and social dividends

Beyond emissions, IATA argues that SAF could be an economic opportunity. Large-scale deployment would create jobs, stimulate regional economies, and support energy security goals. Countries that position themselves early as SAF producers could reap trade and industrialisation benefits.

“This is not just about decarbonisation,” Walsh said. “It’s about energy transition, economic resilience, and leadership in the industries of tomorrow.”

The IATA–Worley study delivers a mixed verdict – the world has the raw materials to decarbonise aviation, but the clock is ticking on scaling the technologies needed to convert them into usable fuel.

By 2050, the industry could fall 100 Mt short of its 500 Mt SAF requirement — a gap that can only be bridged if governments, energy producers, investors, and airlines act decisively in the next 5–10 years.

“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action,” Walsh stressed. “We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality. The time to act is now.”