IATA reports diverging fortunes for African airlines in cargo and passenger markets during March 2025

May 1, 2025 in Business, Companies, Trade & Industry, Transport, Travel & Tourism by Editor

African airlines saw a stark contrast between their passenger and cargo operations in March 2025, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). While the continent’s passenger sector posted modest growth aligned with global trends, air cargo performance recorded the steepest contraction of any region worldwide.

Passenger Market Holds Steady

Passenger traffic among African carriers rose by 3.3pc year-on-year in March, in line with global growth patterns. Capacity increased slightly faster at 3.5pc, causing the load factor to dip by 0.2 percentage points to 70.1pc—well below the global average of 80.7pc. Africa’s share of the global passenger market remained unchanged at 2.2pc.

“Passenger demand grew by 3.3pc year-on-year in March, a slight strengthening from the 2.7pc growth reported for February,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General in comments of global performance by the industry.

“A capacity expansion of 5.3pc, however, outpaced the demand expansion, leading to a load factor decline from record highs to 80.7pc systemwide.”

Despite the slip in seat occupancy, the figures suggest relative stability and a continued recovery in Africa’s air travel sector.

However, Walsh emphasized that global growth is accompanied by mounting operational pressures: “The challenges associated with accommodating more people who need to travel—specifically alleviating supply chain problems and ensuring sufficient airport and air traffic management capacity—remain urgent.”

Cargo Plunges Amid Trade Weakness

In sharp contrast to passenger trends, African air cargo demand plummeted by 13.4pc compared to March 2024—the worst regional performance globally. Meanwhile, capacity increased by 10.5pc, primarily due to expanded belly-hold space on passenger flights. This supply-demand mismatch drove the cargo load factor down by 10.4 percentage points to just 37.1pc.

The decline was particularly acute on the Africa-Asia trade route, where cargo volumes collapsed by 40.2pc—the fourth consecutive monthly contraction for this corridor. Other intra- and intercontinental trade lanes also underperformed.

This stands in contrast to global cargo trends, where demand rose 4.4pc year-on-year, achieving a record high for the month of March.

“March cargo volumes were strong,” said Walsh, noting that the global uptick was partly due to businesses rushing shipments ahead of impending U.S. trade tariffs.

“It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed 2 April tariff announcement by the Trump Administration. The uncertainty over how much of the 2 April proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade.”

Walsh also pointed to temporary tailwinds, such as lower fuel prices, which have helped buoy global air cargo in the short term: “The lower fuel costs—which are also a result of the same uncertainty—are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains.”

For African carriers, the outlook remains mixed. While the passenger market shows signs of ongoing recovery, the cargo segment faces substantial headwinds. Restoring demand on key trade lanes and improving load factors will be critical to reversing the current downward trend.

As Walsh noted, broader economic and political developments—including trade policy uncertainty and infrastructure bottlenecks—will continue to influence both cargo and passenger dynamics worldwide.