Rising dollar demand from oil-sector companies and fuel importers is putting renewed pressure on the Uganda shilling, with the currency vulnerable around UGX3,740-3,750 to the dollar as demand for hard currency outpaces available supply.

The pressure is part of a broader divergence across African foreign-exchange markets, where currencies are increasingly being shaped by the strength, timing and reliability of dollar inflows rather than by a common regional trend.

London-based market intelligence and news platform Allen Dreyfus says Uganda is experiencing a familiar mismatch between demand for dollars and available foreign-currency supply, with fuel importers and commercial banks among those competing for hard currency.

The demand comes as Uganda continues to prepare for oil production, creating additional foreign-exchange requirements for companies involved in the sector, while the wider import bill adds to pressure on the local currency.

“The bigger message? Africa’s currencies are increasingly separating into those supported by dependable dollar inflows and those scrambling to ration scarce ones,” Dreyfus said.

For Uganda, the immediate concern is whether dollar supply can keep pace with corporate and import-related demand without placing further pressure on the shilling.

The currency is therefore approaching the UGX3,740-3,750 per dollar range identified by Dreyfus as a key pressure point.

Ghana faces corporate FX backlog

Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama Governort Bank of Ghana

Ghana is confronting a similar imbalance, although the sources of pressure differ. The cedi has weakened from about 11.05 to around 11.15 to the dollar amid a growing backlog of corporate foreign-exchange orders.

According to Dreyfus, energy-sector demand, coupon and dividend repatriation are colliding with insufficient inflows from the extractive sector.

Heavy bidding at Bank of Ghana foreign-exchange auctions is another indication that demand for dollars remains strong.

The relatively modest movement in the cedi therefore masks a potentially more significant problem beneath the surface; of persistent demand for foreign currency that is not being fully met through normal market supply.

Nigeria gets support from oil flows and foreign investors

Nigeria offers a contrasting picture to Uganda and Ghana, with stronger dollar inflows helping support the naira, which was trading at about 1,344 to the dollar officially.

The country’s oil sector has received an unexpected boost from the disruption to global fuel markets following the Gulf crisis, particularly through the rapid expansion of Dangote Refinery’s exports of refined products.

European buyers have increasingly turned to Nigeria for aviation fuel as disruptions to traditional Middle Eastern supply routes forced refiners and traders to seek alternative sources. Dangote Refinery has emerged as one of the main beneficiaries, becoming Europe’s largest jet-fuel supplier in June and July.

Yemi Cardoso, Governor Centrl Bank of Nigeria

The shift has helped strengthen Nigeria’s position in the international refined-products market. Nigerian seaborne petroleum-product exports have increased seven-fold since 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration, with the Dangote refinery accounting for much of the increase.

For the naira, the stronger oil and refined-product flows are being reinforced by foreign investors buying high-yielding domestic securities. The currency was trading at around 1,344 to the dollar officially, with further gains possible as long as elevated interest rates continue to attract foreign capital.

Dreyfus sees room for further gains, but cautions that the naira’s strength remains dependent not only on oil-related dollar inflows but also on the continued willingness of foreign investors to hold high-yielding Nigerian assets, making the rally potentially expensive to sustain if the interest-rate advantage narrows.

Nigeria illustrates the other side of Africa’s FX divide. While Uganda and Ghana are dealing with periods in which dollar demand is outstripping supply, Nigeria is benefiting from stronger foreign-exchange inflows generated by its expanding role in the global refined-fuel trade.

Remittances offer Kenya support, Kwacha faces political headwinds

Kamau Thugge Governor Central Bank of Kenya

Kenya’s shilling could also strengthen modestly as diaspora remittances increase dollar supply and month-end demand for foreign currency eases.

The Kenyan case again highlights the importance of predictable inflows. Remittances have become a significant source of foreign exchange for the country, providing support when corporate and import demand increases.

Zambia, meanwhile, is showing a different pattern. Political tensions surrounding President Hakainde Hichilema’s disputed re-election have interrupted the kwacha’s recent appreciation, but the copper-producing economy has not yet entered a significant currency retreat.

Dreyfus expects the kwacha to consolidate around 19.18 to the dollar rather than resume a sharp decline.

Flows matter more than headline rates

The divergent performances across Uganda, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and Zambia point to a broader shift in how African currencies are being driven.

Countries with dependable sources of dollar earnings—whether from oil, minerals or remittances—have greater capacity to absorb periods of strong demand for foreign currency.

Those with weaker or less predictable inflows are more exposed when importers, corporates and investors simultaneously increase their demand for dollars.

For Uganda, the immediate test will be whether oil-related and other foreign-exchange inflows can eventually provide sufficient supply to offset the growing demand generated by the country’s investment and import requirements.

For investors, Dreyfus argues, exchange-rate movements alone may not tell the full story.

“Watch the flows — they may tell you more than the exchange rate itself,” he said.

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MTN’s decision to return R6 billion ($375 million) to shareholders underscores the strength of its African operations, even as the telecoms group continues to carry the financial and geopolitical cost of its long-running exposure to Iran, according to London-based market intelligence and news platform Allen Dreyfus.

MTN owns a 49pc stake in Irancell, a joint venture between South Africa’s MTN and an Iranian government-controlled consortium. But US sanctions, coupled with the sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial, have trapped significant shareholder value in the volatile market, limiting MTN’s ability to exercise its exit option.

Dreyfus reports that the continent’s largest mobile operator has approved the share buyback after reporting a 21.3pc increase in adjusted half-year profit, with adjusted headline earnings per share rising to 793 cents from 654 cents.

Investors responded positively, pushing MTN’s share price 4.61pc higher to R201 as the buyback reinforced confidence in the group’s cash-generating capacity.

For MTN, however, the headline numbers conceal a more complicated picture according to Dereyfus.

Reported headline earnings per share fell 5.8pc after the group recognised a R3.9 billion non-cash impairment on its 49pc stake in Irancell, its Iranian associate. The impairment reflects the impact of hyperinflation and the sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial.

Currency weakness elsewhere in MTN’s footprint also continued to weigh on performance, with foreign-exchange losses in South Sudan highlighting the broader risks of operating across volatile frontier markets.

But Iran remains the more difficult problem to resolve. MTN has been working to complete its withdrawal from the Middle East and focus its portfolio increasingly on Africa. Its exit from Iran, however, has been complicated by US sanctions, leaving approximately R880 million in dividends trapped in the country since 2018, according to Dreyfus.

That creates an unusual contrast in MTN’s capital allocation story – while the group is sufficiently confident in its African cash flows to commit R6 billion to buying back its own shares, a substantial pool of money generated by an overseas investment remains inaccessible.

“The distinction is important for investors assessing MTN’s longer-term strategy,” says Dreyfus.

“With more than 317 million subscribers across 19 markets, the group remains deeply exposed to the growth of Africa’s consumer economy, particularly through mobile data, digital services and financial technology. Its African operations provide the underlying growth story supporting shareholder returns.”

The Iran exposure, by contrast, represents a legacy investment whose strategic value has diminished as MTN has sought to simplify its portfolio and concentrate on markets where it can exercise greater operational and financial control.

“The buyback is a strong vote of confidence in MTN’s ability to generate cash from its core African operations, but it also highlights the unfinished business around Iran,” said Dreyfuss.

For investors, the next question may therefore be less about whether MTN can return capital and more about how quickly it can remove the remaining obstacles to a cleaner, Africa-focused balance sheet.

The R6 billion buyback signals that MTN can absorb the financial strain associated with its legacy exposures. Closing the Iran chapter, however, could give investors a clearer view of the African growth story the group increasingly wants to present.

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The Bank of Uganda has approved the sale of Standard Chartered Bank Uganda’s Wealth and Retail Banking (WRB) business to Absa Bank Uganda, clearing a key regulatory hurdle in a transaction expected to reshape competition in Uganda’s retail banking sector.

The approval allows Absa Bank Uganda to acquire Standard Chartered’s retail and wealth banking portfolio while enabling Standard Chartered to sharpen its focus on corporate and investment banking, in line with its global strategy.

The transaction represents one of the most significant developments in Uganda’s banking industry in recent years and reflects growing confidence in the country’s financial sector and regulatory framework.

Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Rughani said the approval validates the role both institutions have played in Uganda’s banking industry while supporting the bank’s long-term strategic direction.

“This approval is a testament to the strength and contribution of both institutions to Uganda’s banking industry. We are proud of the retail franchise we have built and are confident that Absa is well positioned to take it forward,” said Rughani.

He stressed that the transaction does not signal Standard Chartered’s exit from Uganda, noting that the bank remains committed to supporting economic growth through trade facilitation, capital mobilisation and advisory services.

“Our commitment to Uganda remains unchanged. We will continue to support growth by facilitating trade, mobilising capital and advising clients across key sectors of the economy,” he added.

For Absa, the acquisition strengthens its position in the retail and wealth banking segments while expanding its customer base and market reach.

Absa Bank Uganda Managing Director David Wandera described the regulatory approval as a major milestone for both the transaction and the wider banking sector.

“This approval is a significant milestone and underscores confidence in Uganda’s banking system as well as Absa’s long-term commitment to the market,” Wandera said.

“Drawing from our experience during the Barclays transition, we have the capability to manage complex integrations while ensuring customer continuity and operational stability.”

The acquisition comes at a time when Absa is posting strong financial performance. The bank recently reported profit after tax of UGX 222 billion for 2025, up from UGX 178 billion the previous year, while customer deposits rose to UGX 4.66 trillion and total assets surpassed UGX 7 trillion.

Industry analysts say the acquisition could strengthen Absa’s presence among affluent customers and deepen its wealth management proposition while enhancing its ability to leverage its growing deposit base.

The deal also marks the next phase of Standard Chartered’s strategic repositioning in Uganda. Rather than competing aggressively in retail banking, the lender is expected to concentrate resources on corporate banking, trade finance, treasury services, project financing and investment banking.

The bank has increasingly focused on connecting Ugandan businesses and institutions to international capital and trade flows, while supporting major investments in infrastructure, energy and other strategic sectors.

Both banks said there will be no immediate changes for customers, with services continuing through existing channels during the transition period.

Any future changes, they said, will be communicated in accordance with regulatory requirements and customer protection guidelines.

The transaction will take effect once the remaining conditions under the sale agreement have been fulfilled, with both institutions continuing to engage regulators and stakeholders throughout the process.

Beyond the transfer of a retail portfolio, the deal highlights a broader trend within Uganda’s banking sector, where institutions are increasingly specialising around their core strengths while pursuing scale in strategically important market segments.

For Absa, that means expanding its retail and wealth banking footprint. For Standard Chartered, it means deepening its role as a corporate and investment banking partner in Uganda’s evolving economy.

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According to the latest World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, overall commodity prices are forecast to rise by 16 pc in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizers prices and record-high prices for several key metals.

Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics said, “The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive. The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse.”

Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35 pc of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day. Even after moderating from their recent peak, Brent oil prices remained more than 50 pc higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025. These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions end in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026.

The World Food Programme says fertilizer prices are projected to increase by 31 pc, driven by a 60 pc jump in urea prices. Fertilizer affordability will fall to its worst level since 2022, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields. If the conflict proves more prolonged, these pressures on food supply and affordability could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year.

In developing economies, inflation is now projected 5.1 percent in 2026 under the baseline assumptions—a full percentage point higher than was expected before the war and an increase from 4.7 percent last year. Growth in developing economies will also deteriorate as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports from the Middle East face sharp curbs. Developing economies are expected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2026, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since January.

This year, Brent oil prices could average as high as $115 in a scenario where critical oil and gas facilities suffer more damage and export volumes are slow to recover. This in turn would have ripple effects on prices for fertilizer and alternative energy sources such as biofuels. Under this scenario, inflation in developing economies could rise to 5.8 percent this year, a level exceeded only in 2022 over the past decade.

Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group said, “The succession of shocks over the decade has sharply reduced the fiscal space available to respond to the current historic energy supply crisis,”  “Governments must resist the temptation of broad, untargeted fiscal support measures that could distort markets and erode fiscal buffers. Instead, they should focus on rapid, temporary support targeted to the most vulnerable households.”

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SBG Securities Uganda has introduced a USD-denominated Fixed Income Unit Trust Fund, marking a strategic shift toward multi-currency investment offerings as global economic volatility reshapes investor behaviour.

The new product complements the firm’s existing Uganda shilling (UGX) unit trust, giving investors the option to diversify across currencies at a time when exchange rate pressures and global uncertainty are increasingly influencing returns.

The move reflects a growing recognition within Uganda’s financial sector that currency risk is no longer peripheral but central to portfolio strategy. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fluctuating energy prices driving volatility in global markets, investors are seeking safer stores of value and instruments that can preserve capital in hard currency terms.

Grace Semakula, Chief Executive of SBG Securities Uganda, said the introduction of the USD fund is designed to offer flexibility rather than replace local currency investments.

“The Uganda shilling remains a strong and important foundation for domestic investment. However, in today’s dynamic environment, diversification across currencies is becoming essential. This USD fund complements our UGX offering by giving clients more options as they navigate different investment needs,” she said.

At its core, the USD Fixed Income Unit Trust is structured to act as a hedge against currency depreciation—particularly relevant for investors with obligations or income streams linked to foreign currency. By holding assets denominated in US dollars, investors can shield part of their portfolio from local currency volatility while maintaining exposure to regional and offshore debt markets.

The fund will primarily invest in short-term fixed and floating-rate debt instruments issued by sovereigns, rated banks and corporates across East Africa and international markets. This positioning reflects a cautious strategy focused on capital preservation and steady income generation rather than high-risk returns.

Salima Katamba, Investment Manager at SBG Securities, said unit trusts remain one of the most accessible entry points for retail investors, allowing gradual wealth accumulation without the need for large upfront capital.

“Many people have long-term financial goals but may not have the full capital at once. Unit trusts allow investors to contribute smaller amounts consistently—monthly or even more frequently—and build a meaningful investment portfolio over time,” she explained.

The USD fund has been structured with a relatively low entry threshold, requiring a minimum initial investment of USD 100, with similar amounts for subsequent top-ups. Investors retain flexibility to contribute and withdraw based on their financial needs, a feature that aligns with evolving preferences for liquidity and control.

Beyond product expansion, the launch signals a broader strategic direction for SBG Securities as it positions itself within a competitive and maturing asset management landscape. The firm is betting on a future where Ugandan investors demand more sophisticated instruments, including multi-currency portfolios, as their exposure to global markets increases.

The initiative also aligns with the wider ambitions of Stanbic Bank Uganda, SBG Securities’ parent company, to deepen financial inclusion and expand access to wealth-building tools.

As global economic conditions remain fluid, the introduction of USD-denominated investment options suggests a shift in how local investors are thinking about risk—moving beyond returns in nominal terms to a more nuanced focus on value preservation across currencies.

With both UGX and USD unit trust options now available, SBG Securities is effectively offering a dual-track strategy anchored in local economic growth on one hand, and the other designed to hedge against external shocks. For investors navigating an increasingly uncertain global environment, that combination may prove decisive.

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An estimated 12 pc to 15 pc of maritime trade and around 30 pc of global container traffic passes through the Suez Canal. The Suez Canal is also a key trade route for coffee shipments from Asia to the Mediterranean and southern Europe.

During the season between late 2024 and late 2025, Uganda overtook Ethiopia as Africa’s top coffee exporter, shipping out 8.4 million bags worth $2.4 billion. In January total earnings from coffee reached just over $160 million.

Meanwhile, according to industry analysts Sucafina, futures prices on the coffee markets have started to rise again especially for the Arabica variety. The week ending Friday March 6, saw the contract for May delivery in New York and London at 293.30 cents and $3,772, up 4.5% and 4.1% respectively on the previous Friday. On Monday, Barchart reported that New York Arabica coffee prices posted a new 3-week high. In London, Robusta futures prices were down by 1.54 pc on Tuesday to $3713 a tonne.

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, are bearish for Robusta prices. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on March 6 that its January to February 2026 coffee exports rose by 14 pc year-on-year to 366,000 metric tonne.

The war in Iran has halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the waterway has increased global shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, and raises costs for coffee importers and roasters.

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The continued prevalence of Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) remains a major impediment to trade as well as other issues such as discriminatory domestic taxes and charges, duplicative inspections, inconsistent application of Rules of Origin, and sanitary and phytosanitary measures.

Beatrice Askul Moe, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of East African Community, ASALs and Regional Development, called for simpler, faster, and more competitive trade processes.

She spoke on the need for a clear, actionable plan to improve the experience of businesses by reducing clearance times, easing movement of goods, and ensuring predictable regulations, emphasizing shared responsibility among all stakeholders.

Denis Karera, the Vice Chairperson of the East African Business Council (EABC), emphasized the need for practical, results-oriented measures, “we need a scorecard to track progress and ensure we implement time-bound solutions that translate policy into real trade gains,” he said. Karera said such accountability is key to boosting intra-EAC trade and strengthening regional economic integration.

During the opening ceremony, Rwanda’s Minister of Trade and Industry, Prudence Sebahizi, welcomed participants from all eight EAC Partner States and reiterated the importance of the two-day Multi-sectoral Dialogue. He reiterated Rwanda’s commitment to partnering with the private sector in driving EAC integration.

According to an EAC Secretariat release, the meeting brought together technical and policy officials across key sectors in the Partner States to identify bottlenecks, evaluate the effectiveness of existing interventions, and propose concrete, actionable measures to accelerate the operationalisation of the Customs Union and Common Market.

In spite of progress in establishing legal, institutional, and policy frameworks to support regional integration, intra-EAC trade has remained stagnant at approximately 15 pc of total trade for more than a decade, well below the region’s estimated potential of 30 pc to 50 pc or higher.

The EAC Secretary General, Veronica Nduva, said regional trade within the Community has grown from $6.42 billion in 2016 to $15.25 billion in 2024, representing an approximate annual growth rate of 11–12%.

However, she said intra-EAC trade still accounts for only about one-eighth of total exports, with the share of intra-regional trade increasing modestly from 11.5 pc in 2016 to 12.2 pc in 2024, indicating that EAC economies continue to rely heavily on external markets.

The dialogue is aimed at reaffirming Partner States’ commitment to shifting from policy formulation to effective implementation, enforcement, and coordination, recognizing that the principal constraints to trade are increasingly operational and institutional rather than legal.

Participants also reviewed the high transport and logistics costs, incomplete implementation of the One Network Area, and challenges in digital integration, including limited interoperability and weak real-time data exchange that cause duplication and border delays.

Uneven implementation of One-Stop Border Posts (OSBPs) and the Single Customs Territory, highlighting capacity gaps and uncoordinated border operations, were also be discussed. Additional areas include delays in ratifying and enforcing Customs Union and Common Market commitments, slow services liberalization, low industrialisation, weak value addition, and SEZ performance, while considering climate risks and the critical role of youth and women in fostering inclusive growth and boosting regional trade participation.

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A renewed rally on the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE) has delivered sharp gains to institutional and high-net-worth investors, with MTN Uganda once again emerging as a key driver of market momentum.

MTN Uganda shares have climbed strongly over the past eight weeks, rising from UGX312 on November 25, 2025 to UGX428 by February 6, 2026. The UGX116 per-share gain has significantly lifted the value of major portfolios and reinforced the telecom counter’s influence on overall market performance.

The National Social Security Fund (NSSF), MTN Uganda’s largest local shareholder, has been the biggest beneficiary of the rally. The pension fund holds 2.63 billion shares, representing a 10.7 percent stake in the company.

Over the eight-week period, the increase in MTN Uganda’s share price generated paper gains of about UGX305 billion for NSSF, equivalent to roughly USD85.7 million. This has pushed the total value of the fund’s MTN Uganda holding above the Shs1 trillion mark, now estimated atUGX1.13 trillion. The appreciation represents a notable boost to workers’ savings invested through the fund and underscores the growing role of equities in NSSF’s portfolio.

MTN Uganda board chair and businessman Charles Mbire has also recorded a substantial rise in the value of his investment. Mbire owns about 895.6 million shares, equivalent to a four percent stake in the company.

The rally has added approximately UGX103.9 billion to the value of his holding in just two months, lifting the total value of his MTN Uganda stake to about UGX383.3 billion, or roughly USD107.7 million.

MTN Uganda remains one of the most influential counters on the USE, and its recent price performance highlights how quickly value can be created when investor sentiment turns positive. For both institutional investors such as NSSF and large individual shareholders, the rally has reinforced the stock’s position as a core holding in the local market.

The latest surge mirrors a similar period of strong performance at the start of 2025, when sustained investor demand for telecom stocks pushed MTN Uganda’s valuation sharply higher. During that period, the company’s share price rose more than 70 percent within six months, briefly positioning it as the second most valuable listed company in East Africa behind Safaricom.

Analysts have previously attributed MTN Uganda’s resilience to a combination of solid earnings, regular dividend payouts and sustained institutional demand following the company’s secondary share offer in mid-2024, which was oversubscribed. The stock has also benefited from Uganda’s liberal foreign exchange regime, which allows for the repatriation of profits, a key consideration for large investors.

Beyond MTN Uganda, the rally has helped revive broader interest in equities on the USE, signalling improving confidence among investors after a period of subdued activity. While gains have been concentrated in a few heavyweight counters, market participants say the performance demonstrates the exchange’s potential to generate returns when liquidity and sentiment align.

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Now in its 13th year, the Commission has handled more than 480 mergers and acquisitions, 50 restrictive business practice cases, and 60 consumer protection matters across 21 member states. According to CEO Dr. Willard Mwemba, the body continues to strengthen its legal framework and deepen cooperation with regional and global partners.

“We have made meaningful progress in building a competitive and consumer-friendly market in COMESA,” Mwemba said. “Our interventions are protecting consumers, opening markets, and setting new benchmarks for fair business conduct.”

Major Competition Rulings

Among key decisions this year, the Commission conditionally approved Groupe Canal+’s acquisition of MultiChoice Group Limited, citing potential dominance concerns in the pay-TV market. The deal, which consolidates Canal+’s 45.2% stake in MultiChoice, was cleared after the companies committed to safeguards preventing market foreclosure and protecting local content and jobs.

The Commission also fined Bosch and Johnson Controls International for late merger notifications—USD 1 and USD 8,067 respectively—and BRED Banque Populaire USD 28,050 for a similar breach in its acquisition of BFV–Société Générale Madagascar.

Tackling Anti-Competitive Conduct

Two major beverage giants—Heineken and Diageo—were sanctioned for restrictive distribution practices, including territorial limitations and resale price maintenance. Heineken paid USD 900,000, while Diageo settled for USD 750,000 and revised its distribution agreements in Uganda, Eswatini, and Zambia.

The Commission also resolved a long-running dispute between the Confederation of African Football (CAF) and beIN Media Group over exclusive media rights arrangements. The Appeals Board confirmed a USD 600,000 settlement and directed CAF to adopt transparent, competitive tendering for broadcasting rights.

Protecting Consumers Across Borders

Consumer protection featured prominently in the Commission’s 2025 work programme, particularly in the aviation sector. Airlines including Kenya Airways, Zambia Airways, and Ethiopian Airlines were investigated over flight delays, poor redress systems, and misleading terms. Zambia Airways faces a 2% turnover fine, while Kenya Airways may face penalties pending a committee determination.

The CCC also issued several product safety alerts, including recalls of over 5,000 Ford vehicles, Heartland Foods South Africa cereal products, and Takata airbags linked to global fatalities.

In a proactive move, the Commission developed a Model Consumer Protection Law and Education Curriculum to help member states strengthen their national frameworks. The model addresses emerging risks such as dark patterns, misleading digital content, and false environmental claims.

Towards a New Competition Regime

The Commission is finalizing the first comprehensive amendment to COMESA’s Competition Regulations since 2004. The reforms introduce stronger consumer rights, a suspensory merger regime, provisions on buyer power, and environmental considerations in merger reviews. The revised framework will also rename the agency the COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission.

Expanding Cooperation and Global Reach

Over the past year, the CCC has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with Mauritius, Tunisia, Uganda, and Nigeria—bringing the total to 19 member states. It also formalized cooperation with the East African Community Competition Authority (EACCA) and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).

The Commission’s advocacy for World Competition Day (WCD) gained international traction after Kenya submitted a proposal to the United Nations, backed by 15 countries including Uganda, Mauritius, and Seychelles. The initiative seeks to make WCD a formally recognized UN observance promoting fair markets and consumer rights.

“Our work goes beyond enforcement—it’s about building trust in markets and empowering consumers,” Mwemba said. “By harmonizing competition law and strengthening regional⁹ cooperation, we can make the Common Market more inclusive and resilient.”

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The UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), through its Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa, reported that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) led with an 860 pc increase in exports between April and July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

Uganda and Rwanda more than doubled their exports, while Ethiopia and Kenya posted gains of 95 pc and 22 pc, respectively. Except for Ethiopia all are EAC members.

According to a statement, these gains are largely attributed to trade diversion effects, as Eastern African exporters—still eligible under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—benefited from reduced competition in the US market. Even countries previously expected to suffer, such as Madagascar and Tanzania, recorded modest growth.

AGOA expired on September 30, however according to several senior officials in the Trump administration there are plans to extend the preferential trade agreement for another one year. As of now, the duty-free/tariff-free arrangement is in abeyance.

Speaking recently in Kigali for the 2025 session of the Intergovernmental Committee of Senior Officials and Experts (ICSOE), Andrew Mold, Director of ECA’s Eastern Africa Office said recently, “The region’s resilience is encouraging, but we must act collectively to address structural vulnerabilities and unlock inclusive, sustainable growth.”

The theme for the talks was Responding to External Shocks and Advancing Regional Economic Integration and brought together senior government officials, private sector leaders, economists, trade experts, and media representatives to assess trade performance across Eastern Africa and explore strategies for inclusive and sustainable growth.

In 2024, total trade within the EAC surpassed $11 billion, marking a 22% increase from 2023. In comparison, intra-African trade grew by 8.5 percent, far outpacing the 0.4% growth in exports to markets outside the continent. Manufactured goods—such as textiles, chemicals, cement, and pharmaceuticals—are driving this growth, highlighting the potential of regional value chains and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Priscilla Andrianarivo of the Ministry of Trade and Industrialisation in Madagascar said, “AGOA has helped, but we must prepare for a future beyond it. Diversification is no longer optional—it’s essential.”

Eastern Africa’s export performance has also been buoyed by a surge in global commodity prices. Gold prices rose by over 60 pc between January 2024 and July 2025, while coffee prices nearly doubled. Tanzania and Uganda, both major gold producers, capitalized on this trend. Uganda also benefited from strong exports of coffee, tea, fish, and flowers. Meanwhile, Kenya’s tea exports hit a record $1.7 billion in 2024, up from $1.4 billion the previous year.

Despite these gains, the session highlighted persistent structural challenges. Many countries remain heavily reliant on mineral exports, particularly gold, while the share of manufacturing in total exports continues to decline. This underscores the urgent need for economic diversification and industrial transformation, particular under the aegis of the AfCFTA. Concerns were also raised about the prevalence of non-tariff barriers and the lack of compliance to agreed trading arrangements:

Infrastructure development was spotlighted as a key enabler of trade resilience. Kenya’s Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone, Tanzania’s Bagamoyo Port upgrades, and Rwanda’s Rusizi Port development were cited as examples of strategic investments improving logistics and regional connectivity.

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